All Entries in the "Technical Analysis" Category
Eyeing GDP for a Breakout
September 27, 2010 at 8:04 am
There’s no shortage of bullish charts out there right now, but not all of them are in position for new buys.
One name I’m watching right now, GDP, is in pretty good technical shape here and looks like it may be gearing up for a move soon. It’s nowhere near short-term extended like so many other stocks at the moment, and in fact is knocking on the door of a breakout from a multi-month trading range.
The Plan
With GDP threatening resistance right here, it’s on my radar for a play.
I’m looking to buy this one if it’s able to break out through the $14.10 level, and would expect a quick push up to the $15.20 area. That level has proven to be both support and resistance in the past, which makes it a logical spot for a rest if the next move carries that far.
Here’s a closer look at the chart of GDP for you:
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Watch JKS for a Lower High
September 16, 2010 at 7:17 am
The run in solar stocks has been an impressive one, although some have gone too far.
One name in particular, JKS, has become rather extended in the near term and is starting to show some telltale signs of fatigue and exhaustion.
Having run from the single digits in July to over $30 last week, this one has plenty of room to correct. The parabolic uptrend may have ended with the combination last Wednesday of new all-time highs and a reversal to finish negative on the day with heavy volume. We then saw downside follow through Thursday and Friday, with the stock dropping a quick 23% off its high.
Since then, it’s been able to rebound slightly, but there are a few issues with how it has happened.
First, price has only recovered a portion of what was given back. Those who bought near the peak are still under water, and therefore could rapidly become sellers if this bounce fails to continue.
Second, the upside volume of the past 3 sessions is still only about half of the heavy downside volume which accompanied the Wed-Fri pullback last week. That’s a negative price-volume divergence, and with this stock possibly topping, it’s definitely worth noting.
Finally, although the stock has recorded advances in the past couple of sessions, the finishes have been weak. Looking closely at the daily chart, the closing level on both Tuesday and Wednesday was well off the session high, indicating a lack of vigor on this bounce.
The Plan
With JKS in danger of creating a lower high on the daily chart, I’m watching the rising trend line like a hawk. This one has ample room to come in, should some selling arrive, and therefore it belongs on the radar for the next day or two in case the reasons for caution listed above causes another round of selling to materialize.
I’m looking to short sell this one if it undercuts the rising trend line, which currently stands near $26.90 and climbs daily. A break of that level could invite additional selling to enter the picture, and we could see the air get let out of this one rather quickly if last week’s slide is any indication.
Here’s a closer look at the JKS chart for you:
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Why I’m Buying Financial Sector ETF’s
September 1, 2010 at 9:13 am
Financial stocks have been hideous. Banks, brokers, you name it and it’s been taking it on the chin lately. Shorts are getting cocky.
What’s so interesting though is that, like the market, many of these stocks have a shot at establishing a higher low on their daily charts relative to the July low – if this pullback finds buyers.
I should clarify, I was once told that “IF” is a really big word for only 2 letters. That’s true, but let’s look at the financial sector ETF’s, starting with XLF.
By the way, the points stated below also apply to FAS and UYG, which I’ll review as well.
As a technician, I realize perfection isn’t to be expected when looking at a chart. Algorithms and savvy traders alike recognize that the head fake breakout or breakdown can be a fabulous way to establish reversal positions. And this is one such candidate.
With the July 1st low of $13.34 getting broken by a nickel just last week, XLF has stabilized (for now anyway). I like that for a few reasons…
- First, it shook out some traders on that ‘breakdown’ through support.
- Second, it’s frustrating those who got short on the break, providing no follow through yet.
- Third, there’s a downtrend line just overhead which was established throughout August, which if crossed, would provide another technical reason for buyers to enter (or re-enter) the picture.
That leaves 3 potential trader types as would-be buyers if an advance begins…
- Shorts would need to cover.
- Shaken-out longs would want to re-enter.
- New longs would want to establish positions.
So there is some appeal here, on both technical and psychological grounds. Well-defined pivots like this from key zones can produce explosive moves – particularly when multiple groups of traders may be poorly positioned.
The Plan
With XLF churning over 70 million shares on an average day, this thing is not a fast mover. Plus, it’s range-bound with the $15 zone offering formidable resistance over the past 3+ months.
I’m establishing a long position at current levels with an initial stop stop in the $13.20 area (1/2 position beneath last week’s low), and a final stop just beneath the $13 level. That would be favorably offset with a potential move back up to the $15 neighborhood where key resistance resides.
The aforementioned $13 zone offered a multi-month peak back in May of 2009, and there’s an unfilled breakaway gap from August 2009 which could get filled on a continued slide from here. So, I view that as an adequate loss-cut area for this trade.
If this thing is able to gather some traction, I’ll then lighten and tighten (peel off pieces on the way up and adjust my stop accordingly). I’m expecting to be in it for a few weeks if it works, so I’ll be patient along the way.
Here’s a closer look at the XLF chart for you:
Not to be forgotten are the leveraged ETF’s, which offer more bang for the buck. UYG is the Proshares Financial ETF, which is essentially the 2x levered version of XLF. Using the same rationale, I’m looking for UYG to return to the $58.50 resistance area while using a stop of $46 should support happen to get broken solidly.
Here’s a closer look at the UYG chart for you:
Finally, the title of “most slippery” of the levered financial sector ETF’s goes to FAS, which is the Direxion Financial Bull, which is 3x the movement you’d expect to see in XLF. Like the other charts, I’m looking for FAS to return to resistance, which is in the $24 area. Should it happen to break down, a gap fill from August 2009 down to the $16.50 area would be my cue to exit.
Here’s a closer look at the FAS chart for you:
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
How and When to Use Moving Averages
August 22, 2010 at 5:42 pm
Price action provides me with chart patterns to trade from, and usually, that’s enough. However, occasionally I’ll see a situation where adding a basic indicator can really help out.
Many traders rely heavily on indicators, and while it’s my style to keep my charts nearly bare, indicators can be helpful. I think where traders tend to get into trouble is when they rely solely on the indicators, rather than seeing how they confirm or deny the overall price action.
If you’re looking for a one-size-fits-all indicator to rely on in all market conditions, or which all stocks will respect, you’re going to be looking for a very long time! However, if you’re willing to learn when, why, and how to apply indicators to your charts, they can be an aid to your trading process.
In this post, I want to show you how and when I use moving averages when eyeing potential trades. It’s a very basic indicator, but when there’s a trend present, it can help you gauge momentum, as well as help you decide on entries and exits.
Let me suggest going full-screen with the ‘HD’ option for best quality in the video.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
July 2010 Swing Trades – Video Review
August 17, 2010 at 12:57 pm
July started out with new correction lows, elevated fear, and charts which looked awful. It ended much better, with a solid rebound taking place throughout the month. That spelled opportunity, which was nice.
Over at the main site, we posted another good month of trading to build even more consistency as we took a stick-and-move approach. That involved both long and short-sided plays, most of which worked out quite well. We took just a couple of hits, both of which were kept to a minimum, and easily overshadowed by all the other profitable trades.
So in this post, I just wanted to give you a look at how each trade unfolded and walk you through not only the entries and exits, but also the rationale behind each play.
Let me suggest going full-screen with the ‘HD’ option for best quality in the video.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Ashland Still Has Room
August 5, 2010 at 6:52 am
We’ve seen persistent strength in this market since the July 1st low, and while the long side has been the one to trade on, it’s still important not to chase extended names.
Fortunately, looking through hundreds of charts each day can still yield several opportunities, particularly if you know what to watch for. Too many traders fail to recognize the value of rest for a stock, and if it hasn’t moved in several days they tend to forget about it. My take is that those rest phases can be the pause that refreshes, especially if there’s been some recent momentum present.
Today I’m bringing you one such stock. It’s been climbing very well since turning the corner several weeks ago, and has also done an excellent job of digesting advances with these rest phases. There’s still some room for this one in the short term, so it’s on my radar.
I’m watching ASH for a push through short-term resistance at $53.10 for a trade. One higher low has already been established, and the stock has been basing for the past 8 sessions after a solid advance. This one looks like it may make a push toward the downtrend line which has been in place since April, which also offers a logical spot to book gains (if reached) in the $55.50 area.
Here’s a closer look for you:
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Swing Trading & Day Trading Service
www.TheStockBandit.com
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Homebuilder Stocks on Solid Foundations
August 3, 2010 at 7:12 am
The stock market is often times simply a market of stocks, meaning that it’s necessary to sift through them all in order to find some which appear tradeable.
Occasionally though, we notice sectors moving in tandem, giving us multiple opportunities in the same group. That sometimes gives us a chance to identify leaders and laggards, while other times it shows us greater confirmation that something is developing.
Right now is one of those times for the stocks of homebuilders.
Most of them have similar chart patterns, which is the rounded bottom pattern (or rounded low), and they’re setting up to confirm bullish reversals in the coming weeks and months.
The (Floor) Plan
Moves which are expected to take up to a couple of months is a longer timeframe than I generally tend to trade, but the nature of this pattern is such that it should take longer to play out. So, my plan in trading these is to establish small positions, add to them upon further technical evidence of a trend shift, and manage them as position trades. Because I’m an active trader and expect these to work over the course of a couple of months, I don’t want them on my screen every day. As a result, I’ll be utilizing long-term retirement accounts as the ‘home’ for these homebuilders.
Keep in mind, I’ll be maintaining protective stops just in case these patterns don’t pan out, and I will be starting small and looking to add later. But the technical foundations are there for these longer-term patterns to play out, and I like the risk/reward they’re offering.
Here’s a quick rundown of several I’m seeing…
LEN trended lower from its April price spike to fill a gap from January, which is technically healthy. In recent weeks, the downtrend has stalled as price is stabilizing just beneath resistance:
DHI pulled back enough to take out its December 2009 low, and not by much. That kind of move often shakes out some traders who will now likely add to the strength by jumping back on board if this rounded low pattern is confirmed:
HOV briefly undercut support from early this year on its latest selloff, which was a nasty 57% correction. Price has stabilized in recent weeks with some short-term higher lows, and this one still has plenty of room to rally:
PHM trended persistently lower after topping in late-April, and two positive things have happened since then. First, the decline has made no progress in 2 weeks. Second, a rounded low is in place, which if confirmed, could ignite a solid push higher as this one retraces at least a portion of the May-July selloff:
RYL sold off sharply from its April highs, but for the past several weeks, price has stabilized and established support. A move up through resistance would set this stock on the path toward higher prices:
MTH has found recent support after a big correction, and here again, the rounded low would be confirmed with a move up through resistance:
KBH was cut in half from its April peak to July low, and in recent weeks has carved out support. Price is now beginning to curl higher, and a move through resistance would confirm that:
SPF gave up 58% during its harsh selloff between April and July, but now is gaining strength and looking to accelerate higher if resistance is cleared:
Finally, TOL is looking good after finding support in July and creating some short-term higher lows in recent weeks. A push through resistance would free up this stock for higher prices as well:
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Swing Trading & Day Trading Service
www.TheStockBandit.com
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
