All Entries Tagged With: "Indexes"
Trading Scene Still Great
December 8, 2010 at 12:30 pm
On Nov 1, I mentioned the scene was set to improve, and since then we’ve seen exactly that. I didn’t base that post on the notion of higher prices necessarily, because UP does not equal GOOD – just as DOWN does not equal BAD.
I’m a trader, so for me it’s all about the movement. It’s volatility that makes for a great trading environment, especially when the technicals are playing such a prominent role. We’ve seen a pick up in volatility of late, which simply delivers faster moves for us as traders.
Lately, we’ve seen exactly that. Individual stocks and the indexes alike have respected trend lines and important resistance and support levels, allowing for some excellent trading opportunities for the astute trader to capitalize on.
Taking it to the Charts
For example, the indexes have been textbook in their respect of key levels. The S&P 500 has been range-bound between 1173 support (with numerous tests of that level in recent weeks) and 1227 resistance (tagged a few times but no close above it yet). That’s perpetuating the short-term trading range, which could easily serve as a stepping stone for another advance if it’s resolved to the upside.
The DJIA also has been highly respectful of key levels. The mid-May post-flash-crash bounce carried the senior index up to the 10920 area, and since then that level has been revisited. Currently it’s serving as support over the past few weeks, while the early-November high at 11451 was tested and held on Tuesday.
Individual stocks have also made exceptional moves through important trend lines as well as out of well-defined patterns. Here’s a look at a few examples:
So the general trading scene continues to improve, which means there’ll likely be ample opportunity in the weeks ahead to capitalize on. But the market won’t give you money – you’ve got to know where to find it and how to extract it. If you’re preparing daily with several if/then scenarios, and you’re managing your risk appropriately, you’re positioning yourself for continued success.
Trade Like A Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Don’t Dismiss This Scenario
September 24, 2010 at 11:45 am
It’s been a big run off the August lows, there’s no doubt about it. September, as a seasonally weak month historically, has caught many off guard with this relentless ramp.
And while the market has conditioned us in recent months to expect harsh reversals rather than continuation, this time may be different.
In other words, don’t dismiss the notion of a secondary advance into the end of the year.
There are a lot of factors at play, but one of them in particular is worth taking a closer look at. I put out an article earlier today that discusses The Case for a Year-End Rally, and wanted to be sure to let you know about it.
A pressing motivation for some is fast approaching, and it could prove to be a game-changer for what has been a range-bound market. Keep an open mind…
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are Sellers Looking for a Catalyst?
September 21, 2010 at 8:44 am
Anytime we see market streaks emerge, we know someone’s been caught on the wrong side.
Monday’s session marked the 12th advance in the previous 13 trading sessions for the NAZ, including nine straight. Breakouts happened across the board, with the summer highs being cleared on solid volume. It almost feels like stocks may never decline again – and that’s a dangerous way to think.
The market will humble traders of all kinds, including bulls who become overconfident. It may not be a life-altering lesson, but in a tape like this, it could be one slip that brings a sudden pullback – even if it’s a brief one.
The technical picture is positive, there’s no doubt about it. We just established higher lows in August relative to July, and we just made higher highs. That’s a shift of trend, not only in the short term of the past couple weeks, but in the intermediate term of the past few months. The bulls are sitting pretty.
Things start to get really tricky though when momentum begins to run a little too hot, which is where we are right now. All news has been good news of late, and the buyers have dumped cash into this market relentlessly since the start of September. It’s been an impressive run, no matter how you slice it.
For a reality check, however, it’s safe to say that all the easy money has been made for this run. The pace is unsustainable, plain and simple. We could push higher from here, there’s no rule to prevent that from happening, but it’s far more likely that we’ll see some profit-taking kick in sooner rather than later. Those who are sitting on profits will be quick to lock them in at the first sign of weakness.
When it comes to excuses, the market is excellent at finding them. Right now, my hunch is that the bulls are needing an excuse to satisfy their urge to lock in at least some of their gains. And with a few key events on the horizon, it’s important that you and I stay on our toes.
Today’s FOMC meeting may be the first possible excuse for some profit-taking. It may not even matter what the Fed does or says – what matters is how the market responds to the news. And if it isn’t today, then there’s plenty of economic news slated for this week which could prove to be a market-mover.
So, I’m on the watch for a possible pullback. If I were predicting, I’d already be short – and I’m not. Instead, I’m watching carefully to see if some selling kicks in, which would then set up a favorable risk/reward scenario for a little round of selling. Here’s my game plan:
The QQQQ has rallied big, not only in recent weeks, but on the intraday chart as well. We have steep uptrend lines on both the daily and intraday charts, and I’m watching them both for downside breaks. First, let’s take a look at the intraday chart. Monday’s advance was smooth, and a break of the rising trend line at $48.70 would likely spark some selling. I’ll go short there with a stop in the $49 area, just above yesterday’s high.
On the daily chart, there’s also a steep rising trend line. A break of that wouldn’t necessarily mean price goes straight down, but it may be a worthwhile short for the nimble to catch the first move. The rising trend line currently stands around $48.30, and a break of that level could bring into play a multi-day pullback. Traders watching the daily chart should keep that level front and center today, and it will climb daily should this market happen to continue advancing. Once it’s broken though, the move could be a swift one to the downside for a quick trade.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
A Good Time to Lighten Up
September 13, 2010 at 11:32 am
As I watch the action today, there’s reason to be impressed. Heading into today’s session, the market had posted gains in 6 of the past 7 sessions, and had moved right up to (or through in some cases) key resistance zones.
That would have been a very logical spot for some profit-taking, or at least some rest to kick in, but so far today all we have is more strength as the market tries to make it 7-of-8. Each of the major averages have pushed through their respective resistance levels. The NAZ has filled its gap to 2277 from 8/11 and the August high isn’t much of a stretch from here. The S&P 500 has motored well beyond 1107 and is just a few points from big resistance near 1130. The DJIA is through 10,480 and only a short distance from former resistance and the broken uptrend line at 10,600. And the RUT is now well past former broken support at 639. Needless to say, the longer-term technical picture is looking far better than it was just a couple of weeks ago.
Look to the Left
But that doesn’t mean the bulls are in the clear. Not in the intermediate term, at least until the August highs are cleared. And not in the short term, given that this move is becoming extended.
Momentum in the market is a funny thing, because it can be completely absent and then suddenly dominate the tape. The buyers have momentum right now, and I’m not in a hurry to fade that. But at the same time, I’m also in no hurry to chase it. In the past several months, we’ve seen plenty of moves of similar magnitude to that which has occurred since August 31st, and a number of them have delivered at least short-term reversals. Piling on in expectation of immediate continuation has not been a strategy that has paid well.
As a technical trader, I let the charts guide me. I watch for patterns and trends, yes, but I also must monitor the overall behavior of the market – the habits of the price action, if you will. At some point, continuation beyond multi-day moves will become more commonplace, but if recent history is any gauge – and particularly with major levels looming just overhead – my inclination here is to be more cautious than aggressive.
A Little Caution Goes A Long Way
For those who are bulls, I think better prices will arrive for getting long. For those who are bears, there is no proof yet that this bounce is over. And all of that leaves me feeling that doing less here is best – at least until some rest is seen.
If you’re seeing some good trading opportunities out there for the shortest of timeframes, there’s probably no harm in taking them. But for a multi-day timeframe, I am not a buyer in these conditions and would much prefer to see a pullback or some rest before considering longer-lasting trades on the long side.
Here’s a look at the NAZ, which has moved more than 8% off support in just 8 sessions – is that really sustainable?
Be careful out there.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Video Review of the Indexes 12-20-2009
December 20, 2009 at 2:49 pm
The bulls remain in the driver’s seat as we close in on the end of the year, but do they plan to finish strong? An opportunity certainly awaits them if they can produce a breakout, but with light volume and a holiday-shortened trading week, expectations may be low.
As we head into a brand new week of trading, let’s examine some important levels in the indexes to keep an eye on in the days ahead. That will have the greatest influence on how individual stocks are going to move, so it’s where the trading week begins.
This clip was also posted over on the Trading Videos site (as always), and perhaps you’ve seen it there – but in case you didn’t, I wanted to put it here on the blog for you.
Let me highly suggest clicking the “HD” on the video player and then going full-screen for best quality.
Thanks for stopping by and I’ll see you here soon with more.
Until then… Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Video Review of the Indexes 12-13-2009
December 13, 2009 at 3:08 pm
This market is at home on the range, and just one glance of the daily charts over the past several weeks makes it clear that the standoff between buyers and sellers is still in effect. The bulls have maintained control for 9 months and counting, yet with a wonderful opportunity to produce a breakout and stretch their legs a bit, they’re hesitating. Why?
Who knows. The fact of the matter is that as traders, you and I must recognize such things as a trading range, and adjust as needed in order to survive. For me, that has meant keeping tighter stops and staying selective until better momentum surfaces. Eventually, this too shall pass, so hang in there!
As we head into a brand new week of trading, let’s examine some important levels in the indexes to keep an eye on in the days ahead. That will have the greatest influence on how individual stocks are going to move, so it’s where the trading week begins.
This clip was also posted over on the Trading Videos site (as always), and perhaps you’ve seen it there – but in case you didn’t, I wanted to put it here on the blog for you.
Let me highly suggest clicking the “HD” on the video player and then going full-screen for best quality.
Thanks for stopping by and I’ll see you here soon with more.
Until then… Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Video Review of the Indexes 12-6-2009
December 4, 2009 at 10:22 pm
The major averages each pushed north of new highs last week, but only temporarily. Intraday milestones simply don’t carry the same weight as those which occur on a closing basis, and last week proved to be no different as resistance was cleared, only to be given right back by the end of the session on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Will this next week prove to be any different, or will the trading ranges persist yet again?
As we head into a brand new week of trading, let’s examine some important levels in the indexes to keep an eye on in the days ahead. That will have the greatest influence on how individual stocks are going to move, so it’s where the trading week begins.
This clip was also posted over on the Trading Videos site (as always), and perhaps you’ve seen it there – but in case you didn’t, I wanted to put it here on the blog for you.
Let me highly suggest clicking the “HD” on the video player and then going full-screen for best quality.
Thanks for stopping by and I’ll see you here soon with more.
Until then… Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
