All Entries Tagged With: "Investing"
I Don’t Care How Fresh Your Fundies Are
December 20, 2011 at 1:28 pm
I’m a trader, so what I care about is catching short-term moves in price. I’m not an investor who’s looking for long-haul appreciation or locating the next ORCL. For that reason, the health of a business doesn’t matter to me. It’s unlikely to change during the course of a trade that lasts anywhere from a few hours up to a couple of weeks (barring scheduled earnings reports or conference calls).
Some traders fixate on fundamentals. They might use the fundies as a starting point for trade ideas, which is alright, but is not necessary for short-term positions. They might use the fundamentals as a logic crutch to defend their losing trade, telling themselves “it’ll come back” because of the business. We know how that usually ends for them when opinions are allowed to interfere.
If you haven’t already done so, make this all-important distinction: there are good companies and there are good stocks, and they do not necessarily overlap. Sorry if that bursts your bubble, but many great businesses have a stock that’s going nowhere. Some stocks are making excellent, clean moves even though their business may not endure the test of time. The correlation between good company and trade-worthy stock is not at all guaranteed.
Here’s the point in case you’ve missed it so far… If you are a trader, focus on the price action and place importance on it alone. Trading is about compounding money by turning capital over frequently. It’s not committing to a long-term relationship with a stock…that’s investing and it’s an entirely different topic (not found here).
So if you are a trader, and if your timeframe is less than a few weeks, consider the likelihood that the health (or lack thereof) of the company behind the ticker symbol you’re trading just isn’t going to change that quickly. Business growth or attrition takes time. With that in mind, all you’re left with is the price action – right where we began.
Simple and straightforward.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
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Trading vs Investing
October 7, 2010 at 11:42 am
A recent email exchange with a new subscriber brought forth some important concepts I want to share here on the blog. Among this guy’s comments were the following:
“I’ve decided to take more control of my money and future after investing for several years with a financial advisor. I’m sitting on a lot of cash..in setting up my portfolio should I scale in and out of some core positions in a separate account? Currently I feel as though I’m under invested, and it sucks to watch undisciplined investors make so much money. I guess the real question is, should I trade my entire account or should I trade some and invest some?”
During any nonstop rally like we’ve seen from the August lows, this is a natural reaction from a trader who has exercised good discipline. Sometimes it seems like it would pay better to just be ignorant and chase extended market moves like this one! Unfortunately though, that’s not an option for anyone who understands the two-sided coin known as risk.
Taking the ‘ignorance is bliss’ mentality may be great on the way up, as every gap higher and afternoon recovery adds to the bottom line. However, when the tide shifts and the tape gets painted red, it’s a recipe for feeling helpless and stupid for not exiting when the opportunity was there.
The Best of Both Worlds
I’m all for people taking control, because many financial advisors simply want to ‘outperform’ the market rather than make money – the only reason to have money in the market to begin with.
Here’s what I personally do with my money in order to benefit from both the short-term fluctuations and the longer-term trends which occasionally emerge…
I like to diversify my timeframes. I don’t trade Bandit setups with all my money, but I do direct all my money. By that I mean nobody else manages it for me. What I do is devote a chunk of it to my short-term trading. I want enough of it available there that no buying power issues arise, and so that I’ll have plenty of cash available to put on any trades I like.
I also take a chunk of money to devote to intermediate-term ideas, so these are plays which I like for the next few months but not short-term or long-term. I’m riding these out with smaller positions, wider stops, and I’ll often exit by way of shorting options against my common.
Finally, I leave money in long-term accounts (retirement accounts) where all I do is trade ETF’s for durations of 6-18 months. Those long-term plays are simply to have market exposure when I feel a big-picture trend is present which I want to be on board for, but do not want to react to every tick. For example, earlier this summer I was buying ETF’s for a bounce, and more recently I’ve been reducing exposure there (by selling to raise cash) and getting called out of those trades after selling calls against those positions.
So for me, dividing funds into different timeframes is really helpful. Also, I maintain separate accounts for these differing timeframes. That means I don’t login to my day trading account and each time see a 6-18month ETF play I’ve been in for 9 months and get tempted to exit after a 30-minute selloff. It is a little more to keep up with, but helps me avoid feeling like I have a lot of cash going unused.
Think of day trading with a stopwatch, swing trading with a clock, and position trading with a calendar. Each can be an effective way to watch the time, and they can all be used simultaneously.
If lately you’re feeling underinvested after this market run, you certainly aren’t alone. It’s a frustrating feeling, but there will be other trends to participate in, and one of these days you’ll be very glad to have cash on hand to put to work.
Any other thoughts?
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Interview Archive with Charles Kirk
July 30, 2010 at 2:20 pm
Today’s live interview with Charles Kirk of The Kirk Report was a lot of fun, and I hope you were able to join us for the discussion.
Making it Back
June 29, 2010 at 7:01 am
Anytime the market makes as big and consistent of a run as it did from March 2009 to the April peak, there’s a growing confidence that invites new money to the game. Those who were completely spooked in early 2009 saw an impressive rebound, not only in prices but in their willingness to participate.
Of course, the longer in the tooth a rally becomes, the closer the end of it naturally gets. That’s unfortunate for some, but it’s simply the nature of risk in the market. After all, those who step out on a limb first will stand to make the most if they’re proven right, while others who wait for more of a sure thing may be among the last to the party right before it ends.
It’s natural for someone who buys at or near the peak to quickly find themselves underwater, and at this point just a short time removed from the April highs, there are no doubt many folks who were late to the party now feeling serious pain.
That feeling of panic has set in for them, and in most cases, there’s no exit plan. The failure to designate a safety net prevents level-headed execution of a game plan, so now they’re forced to think fast in the heat of the moment, sparking a slew of potential mistakes. Making it back now becomes the primary goal, as if there’s something magical about getting out unscathed. Nevermind the fact that the entry was made in hopes of turning an actual profit.
Exaggerating Errors
Traders face this dilemma on every timeframe when in a bad trade. With a negative P&L on the day, week, month, or year, the focus turns from sticking with a strategy to doing anything that might get them out of the hole – and fast.
Along with this mindset comes an urgency factor which may not have been present before – uh oh! The sudden recognition that they might be perceived as having been wrong strikes fear in their hearts and now the race is on to erase the losses.
I’ve been there plenty of times, and it’s no fun. But over the years, I’ve found several ways to reduce the impact of my errors. Here are a few things I try to do when I find myself underwater:
- Slow down. Often times the desire to just get into anything that might be moving means it’s also easy to overtrade. Spinning my wheels won’t help my P&L, and it sure won’t help my objectivity.
- Get selective. Rather than jumping quickly on anything that comes along, I’m going to be much more effective if I wait for the cream of the crop to surface. Waiting for the best risk/reward opportunities to arrive means passing up many other plays along the way, and returning to holding a high standard for where my capital is allocated.
- Trust your method. Some stretches of trading are better than others, absolutely. At times it’s extremely frustrating, while other times it feels almost easy. So there will be ups and downs, but over time my method has served me very well. When I find myself with the wrong color P&L, I remind myself that I’ll eventually get my groove back, so long as I don’t stray far from my style. As they say here in Texas, “dance with the one that brung ya.”
Translation for Timeframes
On a day trading timeframe, it can be tough to take a few hits early in the session. Your confidence gets quickly shaken, and you wonder whether it’s just a tough start from which you can recover, or if instead it just isn’t your day. The key is to avoid emotion-based decisions, which will lower your standard for trades and shift your attention to the money rather than the price action. Never do you want your losses to cause you to force trades, so if that’s your primary motivator, get away and return another day. If instead there are still ample opportunities for good trades, patiently wait for the best risk/reward setups and then make the most of them.
For a swing trading timeframe, streaks will happen where at times it seems you’re on the wrong side in every trade you place. Making it back will take a little longer, but it can be done if you’re methodical about it. Cut down your size immediately while you wait to find your groove, as that will slow the pace of your losses if you continue to time trades poorly. Become selective, because confusion can set in quickly if you aren’t following a clear strategy with a known objective. Patience will be crucial, but it can pay quite well, too.
Finding yourself down in a hole is no fun, but it’s a reality of trading that each of us will face from time to time. So take a long-term view with your trading career, even if your timeframe for each trade is quite short-term. Doing so will keep you level-headed when it’s the hardest, and it’ll make you tougher and better as you find your way back on the right side – and you will!
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Swing Trading & Day Trading Service
www.TheStockBandit.com
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
CVX Bull Flag Offers Potential
November 10, 2009 at 9:44 am
My nightly routine includes locating setups for tomorrow’s trading session, but I don’t want to stop there. Taking it one step further, I want to be aware of any other stocks which may be gearing up for moves in the days ahead – radar stocks, if you will.
One setup that’s been on my radar for the past few days is CVX. The stock has trended steadily higher from the July low, and more sharply from the October low. Since then, it has settled into a very well-defined trading range over the past 3 1/2 weeks. The rally-and-base combination has built a very clean bull flag pattern, which offers not only a technical entry on a breakout but also an exit if that pattern should happen to fail.
I have no position here yet, but if this one clears $78.50 to break out from the bull flag, I’ll get real interested real fast.
A measured move could take this one on up to the $88-89 area, which would coincide with a resistance zone from August and September of 2008.
Here’s a closer look:
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Chat Archive with Charles Kirk
August 7, 2009 at 12:01 pm
Today’s live chat with Charles Kirk of The Kirk Report was a lot of fun, and I hope you were able to join us for the discussion.
For those of you who were unable to attend, I’ve embedded the chat transcript below so that you can review the conversation sometime over the weekend. Hope you find it helpful!
Thanks for stopping by and I’ll see you here soon with more. Until then…
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Thanksgiving in March (For Some of Us)
March 10, 2009 at 7:50 am
The market was only down a few points Monday, and yet to many that probably feels like a gain. That marks the 13th session of the past 16 in which the S&P 500 lost ground. Can you say hammered?
With every benchmark index having undercut important milestones (read: 52-week lows) and the habitual selling pressure of late, the mood has been sour to say the least. And bold claims are being made by some about just how low this market might go. Dow 4000, Dow 1000.
Give me a break. I’m not saying those levels won’t be seen – they might. But the predictions are pointless and there just is no magic formula to determine where this decline will ultimately carry. What is important is that the trend is down, and it must be respected.
The conditions right now epitomize the old adage that “bear markets don’t scare you out – they wear you out.”
No Pain, No Gain?
Although the real spooky capitulation kind of fear has yet to be seen, disgust and disinterest are the dominating emotions right now. Stocks are in the dumps and investors have found it beyond difficult to locate a good place to put cash – if they still have any.
It’s at times like this, among others, that it’s sure nice to be a trader. Stocks are on the move daily, and we as traders have the flexibility to go either direction in search of profits.
The one-dimensional mindset of buy-and-hold simply doesn’t afford the advantages which traders enjoy, especially during times like this. So while it may not be real thrilling to go home in cash every night as we’ve been doing for such a long time now, the alternative is to be “invested†and feel the pain of a bear market day after day.
A Sigh of Relief
The day will come when stocks move higher once again (for more than just a bounce), but right now it’s imperative that you and I protect our capital while the Street weathers the storm. Patience pays in this game, and right now there’s just no technical reason to be making big bold bets for anything beyond the near term. The uncertainty gauge is pegged, and that means we’ve got to stay cautious and selective for now.
So I’m very thankful to be a trader right now. Hopefully you are too.
And if you’re of the longer-term mindset and you have some cash on hand, you might be thankful for the fire sale prices you now have access to. But just don’t fall in love – there is not yet a technical reason to trust that the correction is over.
Jeff White
President, The Stock Bandit, Inc.
Swing Trading & Day Trading Service
www.TheStockBandit.com
[tags]Stock Market, Day Trading, Stock Trading, Investing, Swing Trading[/tags]
