All Entries Tagged With: "Market Conditions"
Lighten and Tighten
June 6, 2011 at 11:38 am
An absolute commitment is required for some things in life, like let’s say, a social function. Either you’re going or you aren’t, right? However, other things might require a lower level of commitment. Your diet, for example, might currently be more of an “I’m trying not to eat too many sweets” approach right now. That’s what I’d call a partial commitment, where it’s not an all-or-nothing approach.
When it comes to trading though, far too many traders think they have to be “all in” or “all out” of their positions. Nonsense! Think outside the box a little.
On the surface, we know that commissions are so cheap these days that there is no problem with splitting up positions by making partial exits when a situation calls for it, so that shouldn’t hold you back from adopting this mindset.
There are some occasions when it’s very useful for me to either lighten my position size, tighten my stop, or both. Let’s look at some examples of each, and I hope you’ll add your own thoughts to these in the comments below.
Lighten!
* I should clarify that I’m talking here about lightening up on a position mid-trade. This is not to be confused with when to trade smaller.
Lightening up on a position is a way to Defend both my capital and my profits. Whenever I get a poor fill on a trade where my order is executed at a price which is considerably different than my trading plan accounted for, it’s time to lighten up. By definition, the risk/reward profile of the trade has changed (since the entry price has changed and my stop is now farther away), so naturally I need to make an adjustment. This is the scale I use to do that on my swing trades. Doing this keeps my risk in check with what it should be, allowing me to stick with the trade – even if it’s now a smaller amount.
Tighten!
I won’t enter a trade unless I know my get-out (stop loss), but that doesn’t mean my stop never changes. Sometimes the situation changes in such a way that an adjustment is warranted.
Market conditions may necessitate such an alteration to my plan. Suppose I’m long as a limo, and suddenly the complexion of the market shifts to something quite negative. Maybe news breaks or we see a key reversal set in – well, I’m in denial if I think the landscape hasn’t changed. In those cases, it makes sense to tighten my stops on long positions as a way to shore up my risk.
On a per-trade basis though, sometimes the way a stock moves just happens to change, and that can also warrant tightening my stop. Maybe a stock initially breaks out with momentum, but rather than showing follow through or putting in healthy rest, it simply begins to stagnate. Volume disappears, a sloppy trading range sets in, and I start to see a lack of conviction with weak closes in the stock for several straight days. That’s a time when I’ll definitely tighten up my stop, whether in time or price, as the stock simply isn’t behaving in such a way to deserve a long leash.
Both!
My favorite occasions are those which allow me to both lighten my position and tighten my stop. That usually occurs when my first profit target is hit. That’s a spot where the trade has moved enough to warrant booking some gains (lighten), but the stock may not be done running yet. Typically, I’ll have 2 targets, so sometimes there’s still room for additional gains.
At this point, my initial stop is also now a considerable distance away, so it makes sense to tighten it as well (often to breakeven for remaining shares). This way, I’m risking less on what’s left of my position, while still allowing for additional profits if the stock continues to run. Win/win.
** What are some keys you use mid-trade for knowing when to lighten up on your size or tighten your stop? I have a Bandit t-shirt for the best response, so bring the ideas!
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Premature Evacuation from Trades
May 23, 2011 at 10:10 am
All of us have the occasional urge to jump ship early from a trade, but when is it the right time and how should that be done?
Let’s take a look at a conversation I recently had with a trader I was helping…
Hey Jeff,
I’m long ***, as it just looked like a nice setup. I went long 4 days ago, but it is behaving horribly. Currently I don’t see any pattern and would not make this trade now, but it is only halfway to my stop loss. I am unsure what to do. How do you approach trades you aren’t convinced of anymore, but have not been stopped out of?
Also, one of the mantras I read often is “cut losses short, let winners ride.” I am wondering how to interpret this “cut losses?” I find myself thinking, “I am not convinced in this trade anymore, but maybe it will turn around, it’s just half a position left to lose.” When my analysis of the situation shifts, and I wouldn’t take this trade anymore as of today, do I abandon my original plan and exit immediately or should I stay with the trade?
C.
==
Here’s what I told him…
C,
Let me start off by addressing the “cut losses short” question. I don’t have all the answers, but I can tell you that for me, cutting losses means having an exit plan on the downside with defined risks. We will all be wrong at times, but staying wrong is different – don’t stay wrong! Limit your losses so that they can be overcome with reasonable winning trades. Don’t dig a hole so deep you need a miracle to get out – that’s cutting your losses short.
Now let’s discuss early exits on trades like this where your conviction level has changed…
Occasionally you’ll find trades like this which don’t completely fail (stop you out), yet don’t work either (move to your targets). Instead, they just begin to stagnate and enter into a trading range where your funds are tied up. It can be a bit frustrating, simply because you’re left in limbo, wondering if the trade is in the process of failing or working. Each new red or green bar feels like the start of something meaningful, but they’re followed by the opposing color and you soon realize that price is simply showing indecision.
A key consideration to make when this happens is whether the character of the stock has changed. Stated otherwise, do you have a good reason to now lack conviction, or is it merely a mood shift for you?
A slow-moving trade is far different than one which may have just experienced an important technical event…
- Just because a trade isn’t developing quite as quickly as you would have wanted doesn’t mean it’s destined for failure.
- The stock may be building a new pattern which you simply haven’t identified yet.
- When I find myself in a trade which is starting to bore me, I know I’m overanalyzing when I start looking for signals which aren’t there.
- If I’m positioned in accordance with the overall market (ie: long in a market uptrend), and if my trading capacity isn’t restricted because of this position (I don’t need to free up capital), then what I need to do is stay with the trade until a technical reason prompts an exit. I likely need to stay patient, as this is still a trade which can pay me.
On the other hand, there are times when a premature exit may be warranted…
- When the stock has just seen a change in character as measured by a technical event (high-volume reversal, for example), an adjustment may be called for.
- If your trading funds are limited and you’d rather shift into a better idea, then you might consider closing out the trade in favor of another with more promise.
- When you find yourself positioned in opposition to the prevailing market trend (ie: long in a market downtrend), then you have grounds to at least lighten up. That can be done either by reducing your position while maintaining your original stop & target parameters for the trade, or by tightening both your risk and objective.
What else could help C. in this situation?
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Archived Webinar
April 20, 2011 at 12:47 pm
Good news! Last night’s webinar in conjunction with Worden was recorded and is now available. If you missed out in real-time, there are still a TON of ideas worth taking note of.
The run time is under 1 hour, and I promise you’ll learn something on top of all the trade ideas presented. Here’s the link to the archived webinar.
Enjoy!
Trade Like A Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
4 Reasons to Be in Cash This Weekend
February 24, 2011 at 6:04 pm
Last week, I closed out a few swing trades and shifted to cash. I’m glad. I’ve day traded and it’s been a good week, and I didn’t need to roll the dice overnight in order to turn a profit.
Heading into Friday, I think there are 4 good reasons to remain in cash over the weekend:
1. Busted Patterns. Simply put, right now for most stocks it’s too late to short (for the initial selloff anyway), and it’s too early to go long. For me, the smaller the pattern, the shorter the timeframe for the trade I’ll take from that pattern. With this week’s sudden shift of direction and the intensity of this initial pullback, whatever had been looking bullish (sans energy) now isn’t, and whatever had been looking bearish has cracked like the Liberty bell. Most patterns out there are 3-bar setups, which means I’ll day trade them if they confirm but otherwise will allow them to mature further (read: sit on your hands and wait).
2. Added Uncertainty. Heading into a 3-night, 2-day stay in the heart of Uncertaintyville isn’t great for capital preservation. Holding overnight always involves uncertainty, but when we’re in an environment which is so sensitive to geopolitical events in the Middle East, it has more of an earnings announcement feel to it. One of my trading rules dictates that I avoid holding positions into earnings since I have no edge, and because it makes risk management so difficult impossible. Right now, gap risk is running higher, so when the setups aren’t there (see #1 above), why hold overnight?
3. Change of Character. Every dip has been bought…until this week, which is to say the landscape has shifted a bit. That’s not bad, and it doesn’t mean the bull market is over. What it means is that the multi-hour pullback has been stretched into at least 1 multi-day pullback. We’re getting more back-and-forth, which is more commonly associated with a trading range than a trend. The market’s taking a much-deserved breather here at the very least, and we need to respect that.
4. Better potential ahead. There are a few setups I’m watching for Friday’s session, but the truth is that I expect much better opportunity to surface next week when it comes to swing trading. A couple of bars go a long way when patterns are developing, and right now that’s just what many stocks need. I expect we’ll see that take place next week, so I’d rather have the peace of mind and lack of risk than to fret over the weekend about what a potentially hurtful gap would mean.
Once the dust settles ‘over there,’ we’ll have some better patterns and spots to pick and choose from. And the good news is that volatility is increasing, which means more movement anyway – always a great thing for short-term traders like you and me. So enjoy your weekend and rest up, next week is sure to be another interesting one and we’re going to need to show up ready!
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Video Review of the Indexes 12-19-2010
December 19, 2010 at 3:04 pm
It’s still a bull market, and last week we saw continued price action which was constructive to the current trend as the indexes tagged new highs and consolidated.
The buyers continue to provide support on even the smallest of dips, although we haven’t ramped higher since earlier this month. There’s still time for an end of the year rally, so with an underlying bid beneath this market, be careful not to rule that out.
As we head into a brand new week of trading, let’s examine some important levels to keep an eye on in the days ahead. That will have the greatest influence on how individual stocks are going to move, so it’s where the trading week begins.
Be sure to view in full-screen mode for best quality in the video.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Video Review of the Indexes 12-12-2010
December 12, 2010 at 3:06 pm
The bulls reminded all last week of the fact they have the upper hand (hoof?) in this market by producing new multi-year highs and finishing off the week in a strong fashion.
At some point, we’ll see this market correct, but right now that’s apparently far from the minds of traders as they see the push into the end of the year. What’s perhaps aiding the cause of the bulls is simply the fact that we’ve seen some nice rotation between large-caps and small-caps as turns are taken for the leadership role from week to week.
As we head into a brand new week of trading, let’s examine some important levels to keep an eye on in the days ahead. That will have the greatest influence on how individual stocks are going to move, so it’s where the trading week begins.
Be sure to view in full-screen mode for best quality in the video.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Trading Scene Still Great
December 8, 2010 at 12:30 pm
On Nov 1, I mentioned the scene was set to improve, and since then we’ve seen exactly that. I didn’t base that post on the notion of higher prices necessarily, because UP does not equal GOOD – just as DOWN does not equal BAD.
I’m a trader, so for me it’s all about the movement. It’s volatility that makes for a great trading environment, especially when the technicals are playing such a prominent role. We’ve seen a pick up in volatility of late, which simply delivers faster moves for us as traders.
Lately, we’ve seen exactly that. Individual stocks and the indexes alike have respected trend lines and important resistance and support levels, allowing for some excellent trading opportunities for the astute trader to capitalize on.
Taking it to the Charts
For example, the indexes have been textbook in their respect of key levels. The S&P 500 has been range-bound between 1173 support (with numerous tests of that level in recent weeks) and 1227 resistance (tagged a few times but no close above it yet). That’s perpetuating the short-term trading range, which could easily serve as a stepping stone for another advance if it’s resolved to the upside.
The DJIA also has been highly respectful of key levels. The mid-May post-flash-crash bounce carried the senior index up to the 10920 area, and since then that level has been revisited. Currently it’s serving as support over the past few weeks, while the early-November high at 11451 was tested and held on Tuesday.
Individual stocks have also made exceptional moves through important trend lines as well as out of well-defined patterns. Here’s a look at a few examples:
So the general trading scene continues to improve, which means there’ll likely be ample opportunity in the weeks ahead to capitalize on. But the market won’t give you money – you’ve got to know where to find it and how to extract it. If you’re preparing daily with several if/then scenarios, and you’re managing your risk appropriately, you’re positioning yourself for continued success.
Trade Like A Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
