All Entries Tagged With: "Momentum"
Misdiagnosed Patterns Can Still Pay (HAR Trade Review)
September 16, 2012 at 3:47 pm
I don’t even know how many charts I’ve read over the years, but there are a couple of commas involved. I’ve been able to identify quite a few patterns and benefit from them, and of course I’ve been wrong a lot too.
What’s funny is that in this game, as long as you’re managing your risk well, you can sometimes be dead wrong on the pattern and still make money. Let me give you an example.
A few weeks ago, I noticed HAR as a stock which had cleared an important area ($42 in early August) and then had settled into a rest phase. I drew my trend lines and recognized a wedge, which was also a pennant after the advance in price. I set up a buy for $46 to get long on a return of strength.
Here’s a look at the chart of HAR when I set up the trade:
That buy triggered the next day, but the stock couldn’t get going. It actually churned for the next 6 sessions, including a test on day 5 of my stop, holding just a short distance above it to keep me in the trade. That dip was a test of support, but I was leery because I considered this to be a failure of the pattern and I expected to be taken out of the trade for a small loss.
Here’s the HAR chart at that point in the trade, and I began to realize the pattern was now a large channel and still intact:
This gave me a bit more confidence in the trade when the next day price lifted to create a little breathing room to my stop. It showed a bit more follow through, then held for a few days before hitting Target 1 on Thursday for a 5.2% profit.
Here’s a look at HAR after the return of strength:
This gave me an opportunity to lock in some gains and tighten my stop for remaining shares, which I did. Then on Friday, the stock rallied again, but hesitated $0.14 shy of Target 2, which was set at $49.60. Rather than hope for an extra few cents while risking more than $2 (my stop had been moved to $47), I booked the 7.4% winner and notified Bandits of my adjusted exit.
Here’s a look at HAR as it currently stands:
This stock may still hit Target 2, but with it being up now over 9% in the past 7 sessions, it’s due for a rest and it has approached a congestion zone from late spring.
When you’re setting up a trade, you evaluate the price action. But that evaluation doesn’t stop once you’re in. You have to keep asking questions of whether the risk/reward is worth staying in the position. This one had come to a point where stretching for a tiny bit more wasn’t worth the risk, so I took the solid profit with a smile. After all, my initial diagnosis of the setup was wrong, but I was still able to book a nice gain.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
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A Few Lessons From AMGN (Trade Review)
September 14, 2012 at 2:38 pm
If you’re looking for excitement, this isn’t a post for you.
This is a recap of a trade which actually yielded nothing – but there were some good lessons tied to it. Plus, I certainly wouldn’t be bragging about a breakeven trade.
The Setup
Let’s go back to August 12th, the day I originally listed AMGN for a swing trade buy. The stock had outperformed the NAZ since June 11th with a 22% gain (vs. the NAZ up 7.5%). It clearly had momentum and had been able to put in some well-deserved rest for two weeks. I noticed the descending trend line from the high, and set up a buy upon a break of that trend line at $83.00 and shared it with subscribers.
Here’s a look at the chart of AMGN when I set up the trade:
That buy triggered on Aug. 14th, and over the next few weeks the stock grinded higher but never really gathered momentum. Three times it posted a new 52-week high, only to immediately hesitate afterward.
Adjustments
Having sat in AMGN for a few weeks with limited progress, I tightened my stop loss from $80 (initial stop) to $82 on Sept. 3 in order to reduce risk. The stock had just completed a multi-day pullback and it was appropriate to tighten up after strength returned. I tightened it again to $83 a week later after the stock had tagged the prior high to the penny, only to reverse lower. This looked ominous, so I tightened to my breakeven.
The AMGN chart with my stop adjustments along the way:
This gave the stock a little wiggle room to keep me in the trade should it turn back up, but it eliminated my effective risk in the trade. A stop out wouldn’t pay me a thing, but for a trade which never took off, neither would it cost me anything.
The Exit
I was taken out of the AMGN position at $83 on Wednesday, and since then the stock has broken down further with a solid breach of the multi-week uptrend line. Where it goes from here, I don’t know, but I sure don’t view this action as bullish so I’m out.
Here’s a look at AMGN as it currently stands:
On some trades, breakeven isn’t bad. You enter a great setup, you give it room, you stay patient, and it just doesn’t ever get going. This was one of those.
Hopefully by looking back at this trade, it’ll help you manage your next position better when it acts sluggish. If you’re seeing modest rewards but after ample time you’re really not getting paid, tighten up. Odds are, if it turns lower you’ll be glad you did.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
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Week 10 Trades Review (Video)
March 13, 2012 at 8:00 am
The indexes didn’t make much progress in either direction, despite an early-week hiccup, but the dip-buyers once again made their presence felt last week. The buy-and-hope crowd didn’t make any progress, but actively trading the moves offered some potential for us.
Inside the Bandit Hideout, we took a number of trades, so I wanted to offer a video recap of each of them. Once again, the numbers game of trading proved essential as several stopped trades were offset by some nice winners. Diversifying trading directions, timeframes and strategies has some big advantages.
I wanted to give you a show-and-tell look at the trades I took this week. It should give you a feel for not only how I managed my trades, but also the kinds of setups which have been working well of late. And for those curious about our trading style in the member area, this should give you a good indication of what a typical week looks like. Check out the trial if you’re interested in adding our ideas to your own.
(Direct video link is here for those interested in embedding it elsewhere to share).
Be sure to view in HD (720P) and full-screen mode for best quality in the video.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
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Follow @TheStockBandit
Week 9 Trades Review (Video)
March 4, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Stocks headed mostly sideways last week despite the indexes easing across the line into new high territory. Once again, highs didn’t prompt the same response we’ve seen to dips (buying), leaving the indexes looking sluggish after significant 10-week rallies.
Inside the Bandit Hideout, we took a number of trades, so I wanted to offer a video recap of each of them. Once again, the numbers game of trading proved essential as several stopped trades were offset by some nice winners. Diversifying trading directions, timeframes and strategies has some big advantages.
I wanted to give you a show-and-tell look at the trades I took this week. It should give you a feel for not only how I managed my trades, but also the kinds of setups which have been working well of late. And for those curious about our trading style in the member area, this should give you a good indication of what a typical week looks like. Check out the trial if you’re interested in adding our ideas to your own.
(Direct video link is here for those interested in embedding it elsewhere to share).
Be sure to view in HD (720P) and full-screen mode for best quality in the video.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Get our free newsletter to keep up!
Follow @TheStockBandit
Week 8 Trades Review (Video)
February 25, 2012 at 11:26 am
Last week saw the market edge higher overall, but momentum was distinctly absent.
Inside the Bandit Hideout, we took only a few trades. It wasn’t a great week by any measure, as it was holiday-shortened and I only traded Thursday and Friday after being in NYC for the early part of the week. Generally, the weeks which offer more plays tend to be more profitable, as our technical edge is able to play out, so anytime only a handful of trades are taken, it places a higher premium on accuracy.
I wanted to give you a video recap of the trades I took this week. It should give you a feel for the kinds of setups I’ve focused on of late. And for those curious about our trading style in the member area, this should give you a good indication of the kinds of plays you’ll see highlighted for subscribers each night. Check out the trial if you’re interested in adding our ideas to your own.
(Direct video link is here for those interested in embedding it elsewhere to share).
Be sure to view in HD (720P) and full-screen mode for best quality in the video.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Get our free newsletter to keep up!
Follow @TheStockBandit
Week 7 Trades Review (Video)
February 18, 2012 at 9:30 am
Stocks headed higher again last week in a lackluster fashion, as a Monday gap was followed by some mid-week hesitation, and ultimately a move to new recovery highs for the NAZ, S&P 500, and DJIA.
Inside the Bandit Hideout, we took a number of trades on day & swing trading timeframes, as well as in both directions, so I wanted to offer a video recap of each of them. It wasn’t a great week by any measure, but once again the numbers game of trading proved essential as several stopped trades were offset by some winners. Diversifying trading directions, timeframes and strategies has some big advantages.
I wanted to give you a show-and-tell look at the trades I took this week. It should give you a feel for not only how I managed my trades, but also the kinds of setups which have been working well of late. And for those curious about our trading style in the member area, this should give you a good indication of what a typical week looks like. Check out the trial if you’re interested in adding our ideas to your own.
(Direct video link is here for those interested in embedding it elsewhere to share).
Be sure to view in HD (720P) and full-screen mode for best quality in the video.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Get our free newsletter to keep up!
Follow @TheStockBandit
Week 6 Trades Review (Video)
February 13, 2012 at 9:23 am
The market continued its recent run last week as the NAZ made multi-year highs yet again before a Friday pullback erased the week’s gains. All in all, it was a healthy week of rest for the indexes.
Despite the lack of overall market movement last week, we were able to capture some nice very gains in our trades inside the Bandit Hideout and I wanted to offer a video recap of each of them. It was a blend of success from day trades and swing trades, as well as longs and shorts which made the difference. Diversifying trading directions, timeframes and strategies has some big advantages.
I wanted to give you a show-and-tell look at the trades I took this week. It should give you a feel for not only how I managed my trades, but also the kinds of setups which have been working well of late. And for those curious about our trading style in the member area, this should give you a good indication of what a typical week looks like. Check out the trial if you’re interested in adding our ideas to your own.
(Direct video link is here for those interested in embedding it elsewhere to share).
Be sure to view in HD (720P) and full-screen mode for best quality in the video.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Get our free newsletter to keep up!
Follow @TheStockBandit
