All Entries Tagged With: "Opinions"
One For the Bloggers
August 8, 2011 at 9:43 am
Last week one of my favorite bloggers penned a post called The Bears Are in Serious Trouble. One who read that post and then saw the 512-pt DJIA decline the following day might have thought it was way off, and yet Eli was still right to publish that post.
You see, it wasn’t about making a prediction. The title’s operative word being ‘are,’ which was a present-tense fact. Stated otherwise, at the time it was still correct. To that point when his post went live, he was exactly right…the market had withstood considerable uncertainties and held inside the range, leaving the bears in apparent trouble.
Since then, we’ve tumbled considerably, to the tune of about 800 Dow points as I write this, and each of the indexes have broken down hard. That’s alright, I don’t think Eli’s post was about being correct about what would happen next.
That’s what it’s like to put out your ideas as a blogger. It’s not easy, and there are so many fine lines to walk…
You mention a good trade, you appear to be beating your chest and first in line for a big helping of humble pie. You come clean on your shortcomings too frequently and some think you aren’t worth reading any longer. You put out an idea which the market renders obsolete, and you sometimes wish you could withdraw the post. Maybe Eli felt that way, but he held his ground and I respect him for it. He stepped out to make an observation, and while it is no longer the case, he was sharing what he saw as a trader.
I personally know it’s not easy to be a blogger. I’ve been blogging since January 2005, and here at TheStockBandit.net since December 2005. Over the course of some 600 posts, I’ve made my share of good calls and complete whiffs. I’ve pointed out names which looked good right before great runs, and I’ve pointed out others which completely flopped. I’ve received many kind emails from readers expressing gratitude for my efforts, and the occasional knucklehead has told me how stupid or wrong I am (and yet they’re reading).
But you see, I’m not here to declare my ownership of a crystal ball – and neither are any of the great bloggers out there you’re reading. They’re sharing their thought processes as traders with you, putting their current opinions on the line, offering insights into their views of what’s taking place, or sharing a trade they recently made which netted them some dough or delivered some education. If the bloggers you read are writing in that light, then respect them for it!
As a reader, keep this in mind: a good blogger is putting out a flow of ideas for your benefit.
Learn from what you’re reading, and right or wrong, give them your appreciation for their effort. Shoot them an email, leave them a comment, share links on your favorite social platform (StockTwits, Twitter, Facebook, etc.), because if it’s worth your reading it, you probably know several others it will also benefit.
And to my homies puttin out quality content, keep on doin your thing!
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Don’t Let Opinions Interfere
December 16, 2008 at 7:25 am
It’s been one hairy market out there during the past few months. Over that period, we’ve seen nail-biting selloffs and toe-curling rallies of tremendous proportions. Volatility has expanded to a degree not seen in many decades as the market has grappled with big issues like failing banks, several episodes of government intervention (bailouts), a presidential election, and the prospects of a bleak business outlook for the foreseeable future.
More recently, we’ve seen the major averages settle into trading ranges spanning more than 5 weeks with support preventing downside momentum and overhead resistance keeping rallies limited. Such conditions make for a reversal-prone market, catering nicely to those who are day trading, but requiring those who generally swing trade to remain sidelined and wait for some smoother moves to come along.
Avoid Looking For What Isn’t There
When so many cross-currents are at play, it’s easy to start including some hunches in your decision-making process. It’s an effort made to gain an edge. We all do it from time to time, but we’ve got to be very careful anytime we start including more than what we can see on a chart.
This is a bit of a touchy subject, because I do think that experienced traders should develop some gut feel over the years. It can offer some needed flexibility. That I don’t have a problem with.
The trouble comes along when those opinions (or gut feel) begin to interfere with what the charts are telling you. Having a hunch is one thing, but becoming married to that hunch is a far more dangerous topic.
What we don’t want is to let a thesis we’re operating on interfere with what a stock is actually doing. Opinions can be helpful to stick with a trade, but so long as they don’t interfere with what the chart is saying they can be a help and not a hindrance.
The idea is to stick with what the chart is telling you – make decisions based on the price action when it comes to your entries and exits, even if your overall directional bias is founded on an opinion. Keep those opinions in mind, but only act on the price action!
The Wait Will Be Worth It
Here’s the thing: right now we’re range-bound. That means we’re going nowhere fast, at least until key support or resistance gets broken – preferably, for more than a day. So as long as we’re stuck in this trading range, it’s a time to let others formulate opinions. If you’re trading right now, don’t wear out your welcome. Stop out quick and book profits more aggressively when you have them.
Once the range gets broken, we should then have plenty of technical reasons to be opinionated. Until then, they’ll simply interfere.
Trade well this week!
Jeff White
President, The Stock Bandit, Inc.
Swing Trading & Day Trading Service
www.TheStockBandit.com
