All Entries Tagged With: "Short Selling"
Are Sellers Looking for a Catalyst?
September 21, 2010 at 8:44 am
Anytime we see market streaks emerge, we know someone’s been caught on the wrong side.
Monday’s session marked the 12th advance in the previous 13 trading sessions for the NAZ, including nine straight. Breakouts happened across the board, with the summer highs being cleared on solid volume. It almost feels like stocks may never decline again – and that’s a dangerous way to think.
The market will humble traders of all kinds, including bulls who become overconfident. It may not be a life-altering lesson, but in a tape like this, it could be one slip that brings a sudden pullback – even if it’s a brief one.
The technical picture is positive, there’s no doubt about it. We just established higher lows in August relative to July, and we just made higher highs. That’s a shift of trend, not only in the short term of the past couple weeks, but in the intermediate term of the past few months. The bulls are sitting pretty.
Things start to get really tricky though when momentum begins to run a little too hot, which is where we are right now. All news has been good news of late, and the buyers have dumped cash into this market relentlessly since the start of September. It’s been an impressive run, no matter how you slice it.
For a reality check, however, it’s safe to say that all the easy money has been made for this run. The pace is unsustainable, plain and simple. We could push higher from here, there’s no rule to prevent that from happening, but it’s far more likely that we’ll see some profit-taking kick in sooner rather than later. Those who are sitting on profits will be quick to lock them in at the first sign of weakness.
When it comes to excuses, the market is excellent at finding them. Right now, my hunch is that the bulls are needing an excuse to satisfy their urge to lock in at least some of their gains. And with a few key events on the horizon, it’s important that you and I stay on our toes.
Today’s FOMC meeting may be the first possible excuse for some profit-taking. It may not even matter what the Fed does or says – what matters is how the market responds to the news. And if it isn’t today, then there’s plenty of economic news slated for this week which could prove to be a market-mover.
So, I’m on the watch for a possible pullback. If I were predicting, I’d already be short – and I’m not. Instead, I’m watching carefully to see if some selling kicks in, which would then set up a favorable risk/reward scenario for a little round of selling. Here’s my game plan:
The QQQQ has rallied big, not only in recent weeks, but on the intraday chart as well. We have steep uptrend lines on both the daily and intraday charts, and I’m watching them both for downside breaks. First, let’s take a look at the intraday chart. Monday’s advance was smooth, and a break of the rising trend line at $48.70 would likely spark some selling. I’ll go short there with a stop in the $49 area, just above yesterday’s high.
On the daily chart, there’s also a steep rising trend line. A break of that wouldn’t necessarily mean price goes straight down, but it may be a worthwhile short for the nimble to catch the first move. The rising trend line currently stands around $48.30, and a break of that level could bring into play a multi-day pullback. Traders watching the daily chart should keep that level front and center today, and it will climb daily should this market happen to continue advancing. Once it’s broken though, the move could be a swift one to the downside for a quick trade.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Watch JKS for a Lower High
September 16, 2010 at 7:17 am
The run in solar stocks has been an impressive one, although some have gone too far.
One name in particular, JKS, has become rather extended in the near term and is starting to show some telltale signs of fatigue and exhaustion.
Having run from the single digits in July to over $30 last week, this one has plenty of room to correct. The parabolic uptrend may have ended with the combination last Wednesday of new all-time highs and a reversal to finish negative on the day with heavy volume. We then saw downside follow through Thursday and Friday, with the stock dropping a quick 23% off its high.
Since then, it’s been able to rebound slightly, but there are a few issues with how it has happened.
First, price has only recovered a portion of what was given back. Those who bought near the peak are still under water, and therefore could rapidly become sellers if this bounce fails to continue.
Second, the upside volume of the past 3 sessions is still only about half of the heavy downside volume which accompanied the Wed-Fri pullback last week. That’s a negative price-volume divergence, and with this stock possibly topping, it’s definitely worth noting.
Finally, although the stock has recorded advances in the past couple of sessions, the finishes have been weak. Looking closely at the daily chart, the closing level on both Tuesday and Wednesday was well off the session high, indicating a lack of vigor on this bounce.
The Plan
With JKS in danger of creating a lower high on the daily chart, I’m watching the rising trend line like a hawk. This one has ample room to come in, should some selling arrive, and therefore it belongs on the radar for the next day or two in case the reasons for caution listed above causes another round of selling to materialize.
I’m looking to short sell this one if it undercuts the rising trend line, which currently stands near $26.90 and climbs daily. A break of that level could invite additional selling to enter the picture, and we could see the air get let out of this one rather quickly if last week’s slide is any indication.
Here’s a closer look at the JKS chart for you:
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
15 Questions & Answers
August 24, 2010 at 10:48 am
My recent live interview with Charles Kirk generated quite a few questions. A number of them we were able to address during the chat, but many went unanswered.
If you were in attendance and didn’t get your question answered, look for it below. But even if you weren’t there, hopefully you’ll find this useful to observe. I’m also happy to answer questions via the comments section below, so feel free to post yours there!
Here are 15 unanswered questions from the session:
1. Kevin: Jeff, what timeframe do you normally use in your charts, and do you let the bar close before entering a trade?
- Thanks for your question Kevin. I focus on the daily charts for swing trades, and the 3-minute charts for day trades. I don’t wait for the bar to close before entering a trade. That might save me an occasional failed signal, but I feel it will cost me many other trades which work right from the start, so for me it’s worth taking my entries as they signal.
2. Ryan: Do you have any execution techniques that you like to use?
- Hi Ryan! I like to keep things really simple, so I use basic stops for entries and exiting losing trades. That way, once a level has been crossed, a market order is generated immediately and I’m in (or out of) the trade. I’ve tried to get cute in the past with more complicated orders or execution techniques, but in the end it made me no more money and often cost me opportunity (buying breakouts with a limit order, for example, as the stock never looks back). When I’m booking profits, I’ll use limit orders at my targets and let the stock come up and hit me, but that’s the only time I utilize them.
3. Moe: How can you scan the market for setups or make trades when the market is so volatile and so driven by daily events and emotions?
- Yes Moe, it truly is a news-driven environment right now, and it might be that way for a while. I think the key is recognizing that I’m not trying to get in front of any news or predict what news may come along. Instead, I’m looking to put capital at risk when there’s an expected reward, and in order to do that I need to be hitting the charts regularly. Training your eye to do that will always leave you with opportunity, whereas waiting for emotions to settle could leave you sidelined possibly forever. Remember, that emotion and volatility brings with it opportunity. On the flip side, a trendless market with nothing but uncertainty brings with it very little opportunity. Keep looking for trades, and keep your capital moving.
4. Guest: What sectors are you finding most of your trades these days?
- Hello and thanks for your question. In terms of swing trades, I’ve traded many sectors and there really has been no consistency there to speak of. When the right patterns emerge, I take the trades. In terms of day trading though, I’ve focused frequently on the ags, financials, and energy names quite a bit in recent weeks, as they’ve been in play regularly.
5. Jon: Isn’t the general rule of thumb that in a correlation study, most of the correlation comes from selection, then overall market, so what we are looking for in trading is the small fraction which lead the pack on a given day which will then beat just trading the index ETF’s?
- Hi Jon, the recent discussion of being in a highly-correlated market (to the S&P 500, for example) carries with it some weight, yes. And I do agree that what we’re after is to locate leaders and trade them instead of the ETF’s. Keep in mind though that there will always be outliers which exhibit extreme strength or weakness, and those carry with them some real potential for good trades. So, seek out momentum whenever possible, and you should find far better bang for your buck vs. the ETF’s.
6. Sam: Do you ever trade options?
- Hey Sam, I do trade them on occasion. In longer-term accounts, I’ll short puts to establish long positions, then sell calls to collect premium. I don’t do a lot though in terms of directional trading with options. Occasionally when a stock looks to be very high risk, such as BP recently, I’d rather hold options overnight than common, simply to have defined, limited risk. The rest of the time, I’d rather have the shares for the greater liquidity, less slippage, and more flexibility to trade extended hours or pre-market (if necessary).
7. Tom: Do you hold stocks into their earnings report or do you only trade following the report?
- Hi Tom, actually I never want to hold a stock into an earnings announcement. Being a technical trader, it’s important for me that I can use the price action to determine both my entries and exits. That’s technical. When it comes to an earnings announcement, we’re talking about a major fundamental event, and since those usually happen outside market hours, I can’t control my risk. The stock is so likely to gap big after that news that I might have no shot at closing the trade at my planned exit. The excitement of potential ‘free money’ lures many traders into acting on their hunch, but it’s simply a coin toss and I am not about that with my trading. So, I want to stay responsible and only take trades where I expect to be able to manage my risk appropriately.
8. Frenchy: What is your favorite ETF you like to trade?
- Hi Frenchy. When it comes to the main index ETF’s, I like the usual SPY, QQQQ, and IWM. Typically I’ll avoid DIA since it’s only 30 stocks, and that can complicate matters more. In terms of leveraged ETF’s, I’ll go with SSO/SDS, QLD/QID, and TWM/UWM. Those are double exposure, and while there are some triple exposure ETF’s out there, I find the 2x levered funds are enough to provide nice moves.
9. Leon: Do you believe a high volume move to the downside can be a reversal signal?
- Hello Leon, that’s a good question. The short answer is yes, but it depends on how it happens. A stock which has been in a parabolic uptrend will sometimes signal exhaustion in this manner, reversing to the downside on heavy volume. Often, that’s followed by additional weakness. However, a stock that’s range-bound which sees a high-volume decline on a given day may see no downside follow through. So it can happen, but I’d be careful not to put a blanket statement across all high-volume selloffs that they’re reversal signals.
10. Jon: Do you feel price follows volume, or volume follows price?
- Hi Jon, this is a real chicken-and-the-egg topic, and there are cases of both. For example, consider a stock in a pattern like a bull flag. Price is consolidating, but one day edges toward upper resistance on heavy volume. That will many times signal an impending breakout, so volume in that case tends to lead the way. In other cases, price begins to gain momentum, and as the stock gets more attention, the volume naturally increases (following the move in price). See CAGC in recent weeks for an example of this. So it can happen either way. Nonetheless, I care the most about price, so if I’m seeing volume kick in ahead of a breakout, for example, I’ll still want to see price confirm that before I look to make an entry. That keeps me sidelined until I believe a real move is starting. Just remember, price is of utmost importance. If you’re on the wrong side of a move, it doesn’t matter if the volume is heavy or not, it’s still going to hurt!
11. Ryan: Do you have any interesting research projects in the works?
- Hi Ryan, actually I just recently completed a huge project with the creation of the Advanced Trading Course over at TheStockBandit University. That was a major project and I put everything I know into that course, so I don’t plan to do any other big projects for a while.
12. Layne: What indicators do you like to use? Certain ones in certain markets?
- That’s a great question Layne. I should say right up front I don’t rely on any indicators across the board, and actually utilize them rather infrequently. However, there are times when they can help in the trading process, so I’ll put them on the chart when it’s appropriate. A moving average, for example, is really only helpful in a trending market. I just put out a post explaining how and when to use moving averages. I will sometimes add ATR to my chart to see just how much (or how little) movement there’s been lately, and that’s another one which has been helpful for me. If anything, the ATR value lets me know when there’s just not enough movement to offer real potential relative to the risk I’d be taking.
13. Jake: What are the setups that you look for on the chart before buying and selling?
- Hi Jake, first I’m going to look for the presence of a trend. If there isn’t one, I’ll take a completely different approach in terms of what types of patterns I’ll look for. If there is a trend, then I’ll be watching for continuation setups like flag patterns, pennant patterns, and triangle patterns. And along with the price patterns, it’s important that the volume activity is confirming the price action, so I monitor that closely as well. Taking note of the rhythm of a trend is another key element, as it helps me gauge whether I should focus more on breakout patterns or utilizing pullbacks to get on board. There are a ton of ways to skin the market cat, but I’ve found it most effective to adjust to the environment you’re in rather than forcing one particular style at all times.
14. Ryan: Do you see the growing awareness and popularity of ‘technical analysis’ translating into an easier market to trade in the future, or a more unpredictable one as more retail money uses the same methods?
- Hello Ryan, another excellent question. Technical Analysis 101 has certainly become more embraced by retail traders than it was even a few years ago, but my response to that is somewhat complicated. First of all, I don’t think there’s a uniform usage of technical analysis methods across retail traders. Take 10 traders and ask them to define a particular pattern, or ask when they should use a particular indicator, and you’re likely to get a variety of answers. So that’s one issue I think that keeps everyone from seeing the exact same patterns or acting on them at the exact same time. Another issue is a bit more vague, which is the program trading we’ve seen such a growing amount of in recent years. Computer algorithms are likely preventing some patterns from fully maturing, or the institutional money heavily fades a breakout, causing many retail traders with tight stops to dump shares, only to see the stock head right back up. So it can be pretty tricky out there, and for those reasons, I do not think the rise of Technical Analysis has resulted in an easier market to trade. Bottom line is, ‘they’ will never make it easy. You and I have to keep paying attention to what’s working and what isn’t, and do more of that which is working!
15. Guest: Have there been any patterns you’re finding that are working well in this environment?
- Thanks for your question, and yes there are. I’ve focused more on trading the rising and falling wedges, as well as the “tilted” trend line breaks (like ascending or descending trend line breaks) for swing trading. For day trading, I’ve looked more for those exhaustion moves where news has caused an overreaction and the stock needs to come back in, so those are the ones I’d say have been most profitable to me in recent months. I also detail the most profitable one in the Advanced Trading Course. The key is to remember that what’s working well right now will eventually morph into something else, so we have to stay on our toes and be willing (and able) to adjust when conditions deem it necessary.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Interview Archive with Charles Kirk
July 30, 2010 at 2:20 pm
Today’s live interview with Charles Kirk of The Kirk Report was a lot of fun, and I hope you were able to join us for the discussion.
APOL Flirting with Breakdown from ‘h’ Pattern
November 6, 2009 at 11:01 am
Classic chart patterns still work quite well, and I trade them regularly, but they aren’t the only patterns out there to watch for.
One pattern I’ve taken notice of in recent months is the ‘h’ pattern. This happens when a stock has a sudden or steep decline followed by a very quiet and weak bounce. The bounce begins to fail, and the price pattern resembles a lower-case h.
The way I trade the ‘h’ is to go short upon a break of the support level. It can offer an entry on the short side for a secondary move lower, and can carry a nice risk/reward profile with it.
APOL has this pattern right now and it’s starting to undercut support here. The stock has already been very weak since late-October, but it’s struggled to rebound. It bounced from the $55.35 level back in May, but below that the next stop could be in the $40’s.
Here’s one that’s worth a look.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Reversal Characteristics & Candidates
August 25, 2009 at 12:30 am
Stocks can reverse suddenly or slowly. Sometimes it takes place in one big bar, and other times it’s a process that occurs over time.
Because there are differences in how downside reversals can happen, after running across a couple of reversal candidates in the charts, I wanted to share a couple here on the blog.
Uptrends will often times be followed by corrective action, which may pave the way for further upside down the road. But a reversal is often a longer-lasting change of direction, and that’s what I’d like to discuss in this post.
When looking for reversal candidates, the thing to watch for is a change of character. Something that’s different from previous dips and stands out as a potential shift in the stock. That might be a lower high, or it might be a sudden decline which proves to be much sharper and faster than previous pullbacks were.
Show & Tell
In the video below, I want to point out 2 stocks which might be undergoing reversals. That means there’s plenty more to prove before they can be considered to be in corrective mode (as opposed to merely a dip within their uptrends), but chart reading is always a work in progress. If the characteristics which we’re seeing now happen to change, then so should our expectation.
For now though, let’s take a look at what’s going on and see if these show us the necessary price moves to confirm what the charts of FUQI and RL may already be saying.
Here’s a video explaining it. Select the HD option and go full-screen for best quality:
Thanks for stopping by and I’ll see you here soon with more. Until then…
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Chat Archive with Charles Kirk
August 7, 2009 at 12:01 pm
Today’s live chat with Charles Kirk of The Kirk Report was a lot of fun, and I hope you were able to join us for the discussion.
For those of you who were unable to attend, I’ve embedded the chat transcript below so that you can review the conversation sometime over the weekend. Hope you find it helpful!
Thanks for stopping by and I’ll see you here soon with more. Until then…
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
