All Entries Tagged With: "Swing Trading"
Why I’m Careful Trading Drug Stocks
November 22, 2011 at 10:22 am
I’m really careful with trading drug stocks, there’s just so much to them. You have things to consider like FDA approvals, patient trials, lawsuits, huge news of positive or negative test results, etc. It can get to be a mess, and very few of those items are scheduled news, so they’re usually surprises.
That might sound exciting to some, but any veteran trader like me would tell you that surprises are not what a trading career is built on. Surprises spook us, and full-time traders like me want only to avoid them.
Take the buyout news in VRUS, for example, which sent the stock higher on Monday to the tune of 85%. Catching a pop like that doesn’t sound so bad, right?
Well, considering that technically the stock was set up better for a short than a long, the technical play wasn’t to be long over the weekend. The daily chart had shown both lower highs and lower lows in recent weeks. Those short would have effectively lost their entire position. Ouch!
Among other (more important) things this week, I’m thankful I had no position to begin with, but I just couldn’t help but notice the outsized gap on Monday morning.
Risk in market is required to profit, but great traders identify ways to reduce risk. Buyouts aren’t easy to see coming, but drug stocks just have too much other stuff going on anyway.
Bottom line:Â drug stocks are very tricky when it comes to overnight trades, so be consider the VRUS move another reason to be careful if you’re trading them (and consider options instead of common).
Here’s a closer look at the chart:
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
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4 Traits of the Perfect Trader
November 3, 2011 at 9:48 am
Maybe ‘perfect’ isn’t the right word. We can strive for it, but we’ll all fall short of it given enough time. Greatness, though…that’s attainable. But what does it take to become a great trader?
Well, I’m still working toward it myself, and maybe you are too, but we can agree it’s a combination of things. It’s having the ability to walk the line between two sometimes contradicting attitudes or beliefs. Here are a few of those, and I’d love to hear your thoughts on it if you have others to add to the list.
Great traders blend:
A ‘Just Go With It’ Attitude with a ‘Question Everything’ Mindset. What do I mean by that? Well, traders can be a skeptical bunch, but the best traders still act on what they see. A market move might be difficult to trust, but it’s underway and it’s happening with or without you. Traders know they can exit right away if it doesn’t work out, because after all, isn’t that why we trade rather than invest? I recently saw a comment regarding a “real bull market” by a self-proclaimed trader. I find it silly that a trader actually cares. Real traders don’t mind if the moves last or not, they just go with it and adapt along the way.
Flexibility with Structure. Great traders have a game plan in place, which gives them structure or a framework of rules to guide them in the right direction and help them avoid trouble. But they’re also very flexible in how they implement their game plan. They may not deviate from their discipline, but they can shift gears quickly when conditions call for a momentum-based tape or some fade trades when prices are range-bound.
Confidence with Respect for the Market. This is a tough one and in my experience, never completely mastered. Great traders understand risk, and they know the market can take their hard-won capital quickly if they don’t defer to the price action when their timing is off. However, they aren’t afraid to participate, so when they see what they like, they execute with confidence. This might be among the hardest things to get a grip on for a developing trader.
Science with Art. Trading is definitely a science to some (quants, that’s you!), and it’s an art form to others (tape readers, holla!). Some traders develop their own discretionary system whereby they know exactly what they’re looking for but weigh a number of factors before executing. That might mean taking into consideration if the market’s fast or slow, or if there’s a trend or indecision, or how a run ahead of scheduled news might prompt a reversal. Great traders develop a feel (art) through their experience, helping them identify better when to implement the proper strategy (science).
Where do you fit into the mix? Are you out of balance in one or more of these areas? What can you start improving on today?
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
How to Think About a Loss
October 26, 2011 at 12:58 pm
We all lose here and there, it’s just part of trading. You can’t avoid it, but that isn’t the issue. Where many traders struggle is how to handle a loss gracefully.
Instead if equating a trading loss with personal failure, shift your mentality for what a loss means.
Does it mean you’re stupid? Not necessarily.
Does it mean you were wrong? Yes, in at least one way.
Does that mean you will never get it back? Absolutely not.
Losses are an event, yes, but it’s also a distribution from your account. Consider them a cost of doing business as a trader. Brick-and-mortar stores have overhead, but as a trader, the biggest portion of your overhead is the losses you take.
When businesses cut costs, they’re reducing their overhead as much as possible to fatten their profit margins. Do the same with your trading. Reduce your ‘loss overhead’ by accepting a loss quickly and moving on to the next trade.
It’s much more fun to always be adding to your account rather than seeing funds flow out, but as soon as you start viewing trading losses as something impersonal, it’s going to change your perspective in a very helpful way. Rather than fret over them and allow losses to cloud your thinking or alter your mood, viewing them through the proper lens will help you more quickly get them back and then some.
Like it or not, trading is a business…how are you managing yours?
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
3 Ways to Overcome Your Fear from Past Trades
October 18, 2011 at 9:44 am
Traders are a skittish bunch. We can make the same trade 100 times, but the one time a left-field event occurs, it can spook us forever.
The other night, I let the dog outside before bedtime. He’s a 7-year old Boston Terrier, so I’ve done that literally a couple thousand times. This time, however, he returned to the porch with an unusual look. I knew what happened before I even opened the door, because I could smell it…he’d been sprayed by a skunk.
An hour later after thoroughly bathing him outside, our house still reeked – despite not letting him in until he’d been bathed. And let me just say, fresh skunk spray smells nothing like roadkill skunk. It’s WAY worse.
Thankfully, the stench is long gone now, but that single event conditioned me, and I’m concerned now when I let him out every night…all because of that one awful experience! Doesn’t seem right, does it?
Spooked By The Past
In trading, we have to remind ourselves regularly to remain in the present tense. Because this setup burned you last time doesn’t mean it will this time. Maybe your first couple of trades of the day were losses, and now you’re scared to touch another trade. Or perhaps you’re coming off a tough few months and you’re afraid to get back in the mix.
While respect for the market and quality risk management are of utmost importance, what I’m referring to here is the crippling fear that’s costing you. It’s the fear that’s preventing you from elevating your performance, or from digging out of what should be a manageable hole. It’s the kind of fear that has you paralyzed and unable to pull the trigger on anything.
Return to Trading Confidently
Here are 3 Ways to Overcome Your Fear of the Past:
1. Understand your odds for success. This of course includes an honest risk assessment of the play, but it also means knowing whether this type of play is likely to work given the conditions. Going over your results consistently will reveal which kinds of plays are working in the current environment and which are more likely to fail. If you understand your odds for success and you’re able to have some mathematical confidence, it would be more costly to skip the trade.
2. Understand failure. Knowing the worst-case outcome if this trade happens to fail can reduce the fear inflicted by a previous failure from an unseen event. Black swan events aren’t common, so it’s not reasonable to fear them every time you approach a setup. Weigh the potential for loss, and if it’s outweighed by the potential for gain, the probabilities are favorable enough to participate.
3. Choose to move forward. All of us have the ability to choose, whether it’s our career or our spouse or our attitude. Maybe your fear somehow gives you comfort right now, because it’s been a habit you’ve allowed. That won’t cut it though, so it’s time to change. Eventually, you either decide to get back on the right path, or you’re completely done trading. Make your choice and get on with it – and don’t look back.
Don’t let the past haunt you into skipping potentially solid plays. Assess your risk, and then take the trade confident that over time, the numbers will work to your advantage.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
Avoiding Indicatoritis
October 13, 2011 at 1:59 pm
Would-be traders all tend to focus on indicators. The sense, I suppose, is that if there’s just some magic indicator to be added to the chart, then trading becomes easy.
They’re way off.
Personally, I don’t rely on indicators. I am price & volume based when making decisions on trades, and although I might occasionally glance at a moving average or something, I like to keep my charts clean and put my focus at the roots of all indicators – price and volume.
Does that make me better? Maybe.
Does it make me more decisive? Absolutely.
Back when I first went full-time as a trader (remember I already had over 2 years of part-time experience trading), there was a guy in our trading office who suffered from indicatoritis. His monitor was the most colorful thing in the office, but also the most confusing. It looked like a child had taken the entire spectrum of dry-erase markers and drawn all over his screens – a complete mess from which no sense (or cents) could be made.
This was a man grasping for some kind of a signal, but what he actually got was 50 different signals which contradicted each other. His search for clarity resulted in confusion.
That’s not a technician at work, it’s a futile (and wasted) attempt at adding an ounce of consistency to his results. He was looking in the wrong place.
A few years later, I saw a presentation by a guy (who still maintains a pretty large following in the technical analysis community) who “sees” his plays develop from charts with so many indicators that price itself is virtually obscured. Are you kidding? Suffice it to say, I think he derives zero value from those charts in terms of actual trade signals, but rather makes a really good living off confused traders seeking a magic bullet.
Indicators:Â Use Sparingly
Traders by and large rely too heavily on indicators, when it’s far better to use those indicators for confirmation. The price chart should tell you everything you need to know, but if you want some secondary assurance, then an indicator can provide that – so long as you’re using the right ones and at the right time.
Remember this when it comes to indicators: more does not equal better! Simple is ideal.
The hard part of trading is getting out of losing trades and staying in good trades. The hard part is not locating the magic bullet. Don’t waste your time expecting to find the secret to 99% profitability, because it isn’t out there.
A better use of your time and effort is to focus on improving your methods. Even better, improve your mentality, because that’s where the real game of trading is won or lost.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
When to Make Anticipatory Trades
September 21, 2011 at 9:19 am
I’m not an anticipatory trader, at least not in the establish-a-position-and-hope-i’m-proven-correct way. I really prefer confirmation of the patterns I’m seeing to trigger actual entries on trades.
But not all of us are that way all the time, and that’s alright. So I want to clarify which kinds of setups are usually worth anticipatory entries, vs. those where confirmation should be seen first.
A Step Ahead
Anyone can anticipate a move, and in the market, most try to at least once. The default starting point is flawed though, and is along the lines of “I think we’re headed higher” or “XYZ is going to $15 by the end of the year.” But those are nonsense predictions which should be left at home.
Worthwhile anticipations take into account not only current conditions, but also how they may continue to develop. They also allow for adjustments, which is a critical distinction for those who tend to get married to an opinion.
When it comes to making trades based upon anticipations, it’s imperative to stay flexible. If the plan you envision doesn’t pan out, be willing to modify it or ditch it completely. It’s also highly important to base your anticipation on the recent price action. If the recent moves give strong indications for another move, then you may have a good candidate on your hands.
These are the kinds of charts which would warrant an anticipatory play, and I’ve stripped the names from the charts so we can stay on point here with the overall idea:
Drawing The Line
As for confirmation plays, the whole key is to wait for price to make its move and then follow suit. For example, a stock churning just beneath key resistance for several weeks might get going again eventually, but jumping in arbitrarily is more likely to result in dead money for a little while.
The way I trade confirmation setups is to draw my lines in the proverbial sand, then act if price is able to cross those lines. My actions are a response to what price is actually doing, rather than what I think price will soon do.
These are the kinds of charts I’d consider for confirmation plays, again without details so you can focus on the general idea without bias:
Hopefully that gives you a little better framework for your next play as you decide whether to anticipate a move or wait for confirmation. Understanding the situations which call for an early entry can prevent added frustration in a game which already has enough.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
Apply What You Learn or Stop Learning!
September 15, 2011 at 1:06 pm
For whatever reason, a theme hit me this week that I think is highly important to share with you here.
It all started when Tyler recently pointed out that many traders get caught in the nonstop cycle of learning, and he brought forth some excellent points. Most notably that many traders mistakenly aim for breadth of knowledge rather than depth. I think he’s dead right.
Then I ran across another article along the same exact lines, this time aimed at entrepreneurs, highlighting information bias as the tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action.
After all, what good is information if it’s not altering or improving your actions?
As a trader, you can learn and learn and learn and not see improved results if all you’re doing is learning. Read that sentence again, I’ll wait. In fact, learning without practice will do you no practical good.
In other words, to find greater success as a trader, yes you need to learn, but you absolutely must incorporate that new knowledge into your approach. Without it, you’re wasting time learning!
Learning Isn’t Bad…
Now, don’t get me wrong. I’m passionate about traders learning more, which is why I’ve produced so much quality material through the trading courses, service membership, and the hundreds of free articles and videos for you here on the blog.
And I fully embrace the always-be-learning mentality, so long as it’s for the sake of (1) staying humble and teachable by the market, and (2) to keep growing so you’re equipped to adapt when necessary.
But It Can’t Stop There
Beyond the learning comes the application, so never leave that all-important step out of the mix.
Bella just brought up the highly valid point of how to learn from another trader by seeing their approach, internalizing their rules, “tweaking them, working on executing them, and then internalizing these improved rules” for better results. It’s one thing to learn what someone else did with a trade, but it’s much more to take elements from it to improve your next trade.
That’s what customized application looks like.
The whole idea of putting knowledge into practice is being in the habit of taking what you’re learning and then putting in the mental effort to decide how it fits with what you’re currently doing. It’s about considering ways to implement the new info rather than simply storing it away for a rainy day.
So by all means, keep learning, but only if you’re willing to apply it. Otherwise, spend your valuable time on something else.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
