All Entries Tagged With: "Trading Psychology"
How Long are Levels Valid?
February 29, 2012 at 9:55 am
A Bandit subscriber recently asked me about levels and how long they should be watched. This was a great question, so I wanted to be sure to share this exchange with you.
Question:
Jeff, I’m new to trading (since Christmas). I’m wondering how important long term resistance levels are. I suppose it depends really on the market conditions. A skittish market probably respects them more. This market seems to be plowing on through them regardless. The NASDAQ now, is free and clear of them with its breaking through the eleven year high, unless it goes down again.
The reason I am asking is that I’m sticking to a 4 1/2 month chart and ignoring any information older than that. It simplifies things and I wonder how far back people really remember. I also am thinking the older the resistance/support level, the less significant it is. Do you think I will be ignoring less recent history at my peril? I also find that the more information I bombard myself with the less clarity I have.
Thanks
Answer:
Great question and this really deserves its own blog post so I’m glad you asked. To answer you though, here’s my take on it.
I’ll begin by saying as long as a level is being respected, it’s worth taking note of. That pertains to an individual stock which keeps knocking on the door over the past few weeks, or to an index chart like the NAZ which has just recently pushed through multi-year resistance.
So, they’re worth taking note of. As far as how important they are, let’s consider the psychology at work here, which is what it really comes down to.
Technical levels are representations of buyers and sellers, which often times base their decisions on emotions. The older the level, the less emotional significance I’d attach to it. More recent levels are fresher in terms of emotion, and therefore tend to get respected to a greater degree.
I’d say anything inside 18 months or so is game, whereas I place lower significance on multi-year levels. They may be noticed by technicians, but anyone who has held for 11yrs in the case of the NAZ isn’t likely to bail out now that they’ve finally gotten their money back – I think they’re the “invested” crowd who never truly intends to sell.
What do you guys think? What would you tell this new trader?
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
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5 Takeaways from the NYC Traders Expo
February 23, 2012 at 11:35 am
Last night I returned from my trip to the NYC Traders Expo. It was a great experience. Visiting the city itself with some great February weather and seeing all the famous landmarks was nice, but I really enjoyed spending time with some Bandit subscribers and some other trading friends I’ve made over the years from different parts of the country.
In addition, I was fortunate to speak to groups of traders twice while there, which was both challenging and insightful as I prepared ahead of time then fielded some well-thought-out questions from attendees. It was really fun!
There’s an energy when traders collect which is always motivating. From the trading floor I first participated on back in 2000, to times in Chicago seeing everyone file into the CME ahead of the day’s session, there’s just something that happens when traders gather to compete or exchange ideas – I love the atmosphere.
A few thoughts on what I witnessed, in no particular order…
Hunt for the magic bullet. There are a TON of traders who show up just wanting the latest lure to fish with. They aren’t willing to put in the work, to learn to think for themselves, or to understand what it takes to become successful as a trader. They want the overnight shortcut, and they exit the scene just as quickly as they arrive, disappointed and surprised that trading isn’t red and green infomercial-easy.
Trading is a process. I’ve known this, but was reminded of it through my preparations for speaking and in conversations with other traders. Trading requires adaptation, a willingness to lose regularly. Imperfection is to be expected, and so it all becomes about good management of trades rather than finding the can’t-miss sure thing. What works now may not work in a few weeks, so you have to be willing, able, and prepared to shift your approach. The market evolves, and so must you if you want to stay in the game and keep seeing opportunities.
Expectations. Expect some losing trades (and learn to manage them wisely). Expect periods of frustration and confusion, they’re going to happen. Expect the market to surprise you – it’s just that way, so you’ll have to be ready to respond accordingly. Times will come when you have no clue what’s next, but that’s OK. When they arrive, you can accept them and sideline yourself until clarity comes.
Hard work is rewarded. I saw Expo attendees show up early and stay late, attending multiple sessions, taking notes on the good things they heard, and leave tired but hopeful that some fresh perspectives will influence them to improvement in the days ahead. I saw prop traders from SMB who started their day extremely early, made the commute to lower Manhattan, gave it their best all day (though some admitted it was a tough day), then stuck around after the close to listen to my thoughts. Even after I was done presenting, they showed the discipline and desire to improve by asking questions, just absorbing knowledge even though they were tired and hungry and eager to call it a day. Those who work hard – even when it isn’t comfortable – are the ones who will make it, keep improving, and eventually see the fruits of their labor.
Trading is a battle. What’s interesting – and which few stop to recognize – is that only part of the battle is in the market. The rest usually happens internally. So be ready, you’ll need to bring your best if you want to compete in this game. You need to prepare a plan, and think through the emotions you might face while implementing it. Regardless of style, strategy, market, or timeframe, every great trader has his head on straight. Those who don’t will have it beaten to a pulp by a ruthless market.
If you were there, or if these have resonated with you, feel free to share some thoughts of your own.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
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LIVE from the NY Traders Expo
February 19, 2012 at 10:25 am
On Tuesday morning at the NY Traders Expo, I’ll be teaching live at 8am ET. I hope you can make it to my session if you’re anywhere around NYC. If not, be sure to register for the Webcast so you can attend virtually!
Specifically, I’ll be discussing Unique Traits of High-Performance Traders. I have a lot of good stuff planned, plus I’ll share the setups which have been working well for me recently as well as the best setups I see in the market right now. I’m excited about being there and giving you some insights for better trading.
Make plans to be there by pre-registering or just show up (it’s free)!
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
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Follow @TheStockBandit
Competition
January 30, 2012 at 9:32 pm
One of the many harsh realities of trading is that it takes a lot of intentional effort.
That means you intentionally prepare (both mentally and with an actual game plan), you intentionally execute (have the discipline to stick with your method), and you intentionally improve (by reviewing results, keeping an open mind, working with other traders to expand your abilities, etc.).
The fact of the matter is that if your competition is outgunning you, the way to start having more success is by outworking them.
When I was in 8th grade, I decided to take up golf. Being in a town with a huge presence of great players (including 8 PGA Tour pro’s), I had an uphill battle given that so many of my peers had already been pursuing the game for a few years. They were better than me, and I knew I had to outwork them in order to catch up to them or surpass them.
The same mindset applies to your trading. If your competition is getting the best of you, then you’ve gotta step up your game and work harder. Don’t be afraid of it, nothing worth doing is ever easy.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
The Zurich Axioms
January 25, 2012 at 12:08 pm
I first learned about The Zurich Axioms by Max Gunther in the daily Worden Report when Don mentioned it among his favorite trading books a few years ago. Soon after, I picked up a copy and found it was indeed packed with some great insights – enough to be a must-have trading book.
There are 12 major axioms highlighted in the book, with a chapter devoted to each, as well as 16 minor axioms. It’s a relatively short book at only about 123 pages, but the “Rules of Risk and Reward Used by Generations of Swiss Bankers” offers no shortage of wisdom and insights for any trader or speculator.
Without disclosing all of the Axioms, I’ll summarize two of my favorites.
Always Play for Meaningful Stakes.
This minor axiom highlights the importance of trading with enough size for it to matter. This goes beyond the learning stages in which a developing trader needs to hone his skills and not fixate on the money. Rather, playing for meaningful stakes is about getting over the fear of getting hurt in such a way that when a play works, it’s well worth the risk taken.
A story is told in the book about the oil tycoon J. Paul Getty, who grew up rich, but once he became an adult he was sent out on his own. Wanting to enter the oil business, he shunned various opportunities to invest $50 in the early 1900’s in favor of betting nearly his entire savings of $500 on an oil lease he felt was more promising. After paydirt was hit, he sold his holdings for $12,000 just a short time later.
Getty mentioned that if he had not struck oil, the $500 would have hurt, but that he could have found a way to save that amount back up again. He was quoted as saying “it seemed to me I had a lot more to win than to lose.” That’s playing for meaningful stakes.
As a trader, it’s not about walking a tightrope where bankruptcy is the result if you slip. It means you don’t nickel-and-dime your way throughout the entire year if you want to get somewhere interesting.
Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.
What an excellent reminder for traders! Gunther makes the point that without some level of optimism, one cannot trade to begin with. However, there is general optimism and there is specific optimism. According to Gunther, it’s the venture-specific optimism which can become dangerous if you allow it.
The latter mention of what true confidence is just cannot be ignored here. Do you know how you will handle the worst? If you do, then you’ve got arguably the most difficult element of a trading plan already in place – the adverse exit. The ability to fail gracefully in trading – over and over – is what will ultimately define how long you can stay in the game. Your success may eventually be tremendous, but if you’re unable to handle losing the right way, you’ll be taken out long before the big wins can ever come along.
My advice? Pick up a copy of The Zurich Axioms and get a pen ready to mark up the margins and underline key points. It’s a quick read and one you’ll return to often.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
What it Means to ‘Trade Like A Bandit’
January 11, 2012 at 11:02 am
I cap off every post and free video with the phrase ‘Trade Like A Bandit!‘ Some get that, others don’t. This post is for the latter group!
While teaching in Dallas recently, an attendee casually said to me prior to my presentation, “TheStockBandit…huh…just like Wall Street?“ No. I explained that he couldn’t be more wrong to compare my style or what our trader education business is about to the crooked suits who aim to dupe investors Madoff-style into handing over their money.
The guy had no clue what’s in the name TheStockBandit, so I explained to him that day what it meant. In case some of you don’t get it either, I felt it was appropriate to clarify here as well so that there are no misconceptions of what the name is all about.
Here goes…
Think of the great heist movies…Ocean’s 11, The Italian Job, etc. In them, we see that the best bandits plan the hit extensively. They mock up the situation, review scenarios which may unfold, and determine how they’ll handle them.
Then they execute that plan with total precision, even if it means making some adjustments along the way.
In turn, they get away safely and move on to the next job.
That’s exactly how I like to trade.
I want to plan for what might happen in the trade, and do my homework to locate the best setups (targets) in which to allocate capital. Then I need to have the discipline to execute that plan, stay objective throughout, and make any logical adjustments along the way in order to protect myself and my profits as the trade progresses. That allows me to get away (exit the trade) and then shift my attention to the next opportunity.
It’s a blend of survival and protection. I’m ensuring that when a trade goes wrong, I don’t have to surrender any more than is absolutely necessary…I simply abort (stop out). It allows me to survive, to stay flexible, and to maneuver again when an opportunity arises. And when I’m right, I’m capturing those gains and then shifting to the next play.
The word ‘Bandit’ has a negative connotation to some, but that isn’t the case here. I’m not ‘the stock magician’ fooling people with smoke and mirrors, or ‘the stock thief’ pulling the wool over people’s eyes in order to take advantage of anyone. I’m not out to con anyone – I just want to make great trades. Like a Bandit – because it works. Come trade with us and see what I mean.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
3 Ways to Grow from Trading Adversity
January 10, 2012 at 10:20 am
Dean Karnazes runs like a man possessed. He’s an ultramarathoner, which means he goes beyond marathon distances – sometimes a lot farther. He once ran 50 marathons in 50 states in 50 consecutive days. Apparently, the dude loves pain.
In his book Confessions of an All-Night Runner, he makes the following statement:
“Struggling and suffering are the essence of a life worth living. If you’re not pushing yourself beyond the comfort zone, if you’re not demanding more from yourself – expanding and learning as you go – you’re choosing a numb existence. You’re denying yourself an extraordinary trip.â€
So, this being a trading blog, it begs the question:Â how well do you embrace the struggle of trading? At times it’s really smooth, and trading can provide extraordinary profits in incredibly brief amounts of time, but not always. Sometimes trading’s a real grind. You question everything you’re doing, your results offer you no condolences, and you’re just flat-out suffering.
If you’ve been through that before and you’re still a trader, congratulations! You have been able to overcome the pain and doubt and press on and work your way out of it. Others of you, however, might be facing that right now for the first time and you’re wondering if you have what it takes.
Here’s the thing…if you fall into the latter camp, this is where the rubber meets the road. You’re facing a choice of whether to persevere or to walk away. While moving forward might or might not deliver the success you so badly want, I can guarantee you that permanently walking away will never allow you to reach your trading goals.
Struggle, Suffering, and Success
Struggling and suffering in trading are common side effects of the job, they come with the territory. As you well know, if it were easy then everyone would be doing it. Trading can be hard, it can be demanding, and boy can it be frustrating.
That same struggle can also propel you to new heights of success, but you have to respond the right way – and it’s not gonna be comfortable.
3 Ways to Grow from Trading Adversity:
1. Appreciate the ache. It doesn’t mean you enjoy the frustration. Appreciating it means you acknowledge it’s here, you recognize the fact that a change is needed, and you understand that if you don’t shift in some way it’ll be the end of your trading – at least for a while.
2. Expect to grow. Why shouldn’t you? What you’re doing isn’t working, as otherwise you wouldn’t be facing adversity to begin with. Watch for new kinds of moves, implement some different techniques, and anticipate some different results. If you survive, you’re going to be a better trader because of this time and how you respond to it.
3. Require more from yourself. Maybe you got stagnant, and that’s what brought you to this point of frustration. You’ve had some approaches which have worked, and you rested on them – perhaps a little too much. As traders, we have to continually blend a loyalty to what’s working now with a willingness to employ some new methods. So push yourself more going forward, keep moving, never sit idle when it comes to growing as a trader.
And finally, for some of you this is a wake-up call. You’re starting to become set in your ways, but you now recognize you’re in for a rude surprise if you continue to operate in that manner. No more! Seek out ways to improve, to grow, to add to your skill set. Because according to Dean, getting stuck in your comfort zone means you’re denying yourself something extraordinary – maybe even that elusive next level.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
