All Entries Tagged With: "Trading Psychology"
Portrait of a Short Squeeze
January 9, 2012 at 10:47 am
WTW was in a clear downtrend. The stock had failed in early-November to clear late-October resistance, and subsequently reversed lower. Each bounce was sold since then, with a series of lower highs and lower lows.
Last week, the stock broke to a new correction low by undercutting the December lows on heavy volume. What followed, however, was obviously both shocking and painful for the shorts.
Wednesday’s arrival delivered upbeat news for Weight Watchers as U.S. News & World Report put it at the top of the list for best weight loss diets in 2012. Consequently, Wednesday’s bar was a bullish engulfing bar as Tuesday’s low was undercut before a close above Tuesday’s high on even heavier volume with a 7% pop. Then we saw near-record volume Thursday on an 8% advance, and further upside continuation Friday with nearly a 9% gain.
Change of character? Absolutely. Value-buyer accumulation? Hardly. This is the portrait of a short squeeze, and it’s one reason shorts require absolute stop losses. The sudden shift can rip the faces off of shorts who panic and rush for the exits while opportunistic bulls get long. The combination can be explosive, as seen here in WTW.
The lesson? Watch your shorts and don’t give them more leeway than they deserve. Keep stops in place and be mindful of what’s possible when the tide shifts. This is one kind of move you don’t ever want to experience from the wrong side of the trade!
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
A Look Through the Goal Posts
January 1, 2012 at 3:31 pm
It’s that time again…time to reflect on the previous year, see what you can learn from it, and then determine how to apply it in the year ahead.
I’ve talked quite a bit about goals here, so rather than reinvent the wheel, I’m going to review goals posts from the past. Get your clicker ready and hit the links at will!
Trading shouldn’t be everything, so have some off-the-screen goals to go alongside your account-related objectives.
If you go about it the wrong way, goals can actually impede progress, but done correctly they can provide big incentive and some satisfaction.
Your dedication and preparation in the year ahead can deliver impressive results, but keep in mind that making big progress in trading requires patience. It’s a process, so it’s all about making good trades and trusting that the results you want will be there.
Stay in the game and believe that the opportunities will be there if you’re around to identify them. You’ll need to take these 5 steps to reach your goals, but a year from now just imagine the difference it could mean to your trading.
Know where you’ve come from, yes, but also where you’re going. So say what you will about goals, but I think they are a must.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
A Trader’s 5-Step Recovery
December 7, 2011 at 9:03 am
re-cov-er-y (noun) – the regaining of something lost or taken away;Â restoration to a former or better condition;Â the extraction of useful substances from waste.
Traders have to go through recovery on almost an ongoing basis. Sometimes it’s from a paper-cut-sized hit to the account, while other times it involves coming back from an amputation of sorts – whether it be a major drawdown to actual or emotional capital.
Either way, without the ability to recover, you’re done. (Obvious alert: that’s no place to be).
There are steps to recovery which should be taken, and I want to discuss some of them. By no means is this an exhaustive list, so please add your own in the comments, but here are a few which I think are necessary on the (sometimes long) road back.
Admit it. Face up to what it is. Call it a slump, call it shattered confidence, call it a big scary market monster. Whatever “it” is, you have to get it on the table so you can deal with it.
Seek help. Maybe you shouldn’t go it alone. Without some accountability, it’s easy to relapse. Find a mentor or some coaching to get you back on track, and add some skills to your repertoire. The fact of the matter is that left to your own abilities as they currently stand, you may very well be facing a similar situation again.
Take inventory. Take an inventory of what’s left of your capital, both in terms of cash and confidence. It may be that you simply don’t have enough left to consider a comeback right away, so perhaps you incubate for awhile and prepare in other ways for your eventual return. Or perhaps you assess your situation and realize you have more than enough to start the process.
Get uncomfortably familiar with the cause. What was it that put you in need of recovery to begin with? Overconfidence? Lack of respect for the market? A series of small mistakes which compounded your problems? Understanding the root cause of your wounds, even if painful, will help you prevent it from happening again in the future. After all, you’ve already paid the tuition, you might as well get the lesson.
Get back in the saddle. The last step in the sequence is to return to trading and begin rebuilding. Start thinking about what that’s going to look like for you and how you’ll avoid the same pitfalls which got you this time around. Visualize yourself back in the routine again, making plays, staying disciplined, and having success.
** What are some steps you think are necessary to begin the healing process following a big trading loss?
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
Don’t Be a Monkey
November 17, 2011 at 10:20 am
Ever seen those monkey traps where they put some bait in a trap, a monkey comes along, sticks its hand through the hole to get the bait, but when making a fist, can’t remove its hand from the trap?
They have to drop the bait in order to escape the trap, but their greed and ignorance prevents them from letting go?
I’ve made some trades in that same manner, and I’m guessing you have too. The ones where I just refused to let go in time because I wanted it to work so badly, and ultimately they proved extra costly.
Dropping the “bait” in those cases would have freed me to go in search of many other, better opportunities, but my short-sightedness prevented it.
Monkey Brained
And while every single one of us has been there at some point in our trading, what’s curious is that it originates not with the setup or a poor strategy or a flawed technique for entering or exiting. It starts with not having a properly prepared mind.
It’s a flaw with our pattern of thinking.
At times it’s based on a fear of scarcity, whereby we stay with a mediocre or poor trade because there’s nothing else on the radar. In effect, we’re bored, in which case we shouldn’t be trading anyway. Listen to the charts!
Other times it’s that our pride is too much on the line and we’re more interested in defending that than our capital. That prevents us from moving on to a truly worthwhile trade, thus keeping us trapped.
Remember the Goal
I’ve talked at length previously about trading as a numbers game, but it’s such a fundamental viewpoint to have as a trader – something we just can’t lose sight of.
Over time, we want lots of at-bats to let our edge play out. When sifting through setups we select actual trades based on probabilities. That’s the aim.
And on any given trade, if we’re keeping that in mind, we’re willing to let go when the feedback we’re getting doesn’t support our original expectation for the play. The price action is weak, a key level fails to hold, or a reversal of direction has begun and the charts are telling you to shut it down – yet you aren’t listening.
Stay on track. Keep the bigger picture in mind. Be willing to lose in this one trade if you need to, so that over the next dozen or hundred or thousand trades you can be profitable.
… In other words, Trade Like A Bandit – not a monkey!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
How to Think About a Loss
October 26, 2011 at 12:58 pm
We all lose here and there, it’s just part of trading. You can’t avoid it, but that isn’t the issue. Where many traders struggle is how to handle a loss gracefully.
Instead if equating a trading loss with personal failure, shift your mentality for what a loss means.
Does it mean you’re stupid? Not necessarily.
Does it mean you were wrong? Yes, in at least one way.
Does that mean you will never get it back? Absolutely not.
Losses are an event, yes, but it’s also a distribution from your account. Consider them a cost of doing business as a trader. Brick-and-mortar stores have overhead, but as a trader, the biggest portion of your overhead is the losses you take.
When businesses cut costs, they’re reducing their overhead as much as possible to fatten their profit margins. Do the same with your trading. Reduce your ‘loss overhead’ by accepting a loss quickly and moving on to the next trade.
It’s much more fun to always be adding to your account rather than seeing funds flow out, but as soon as you start viewing trading losses as something impersonal, it’s going to change your perspective in a very helpful way. Rather than fret over them and allow losses to cloud your thinking or alter your mood, viewing them through the proper lens will help you more quickly get them back and then some.
Like it or not, trading is a business…how are you managing yours?
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
Post-Earnings Day Trading Profits
October 20, 2011 at 6:43 pm
Earnings season brings with it a host of opportunities. It includes the potential for new leadership to emerge once it’s all said and done, but in the heat of it, the price action offers some excellent chances to participate in emotional short-term moves via day trades.
Traders expect big gaps during earnings season, and quite a few roll the dice ahead of it in hopes of receiving a market gift. Fortunately though, a trader need not participate in the gap itself to do well.
The post-earnings gap is a regular occurrence for most stocks, although some make a larger move than others. The outlier moves are the ones to watch closest, as they can signal either the beginning of a new move, or an overreaction with reversal potential.
Thursday’s move in PLCM was an example of the latter, as a 30% opening gap to the downside proved to be a bit much. The stock made a huge run higher intraday, although as I’ll show in the video, catching the entire run wasn’t necessary. Instead, grabbing pieces here and there can prove quite lucrative when there’s heavy volume and high emotion present.
In this video, I’ll share with you how I profited in the stock despite feeling like I missed both the big moves (the gap and most of the upside reversal). The fact is, when a stock is in play like PLCM was, there’s opportunity for several kinds of plays along the way. And the exciting part is that this happens nearly every day during earnings season, 4 times per year.
Be sure to watch full-screen on the 720p setting for the HD version of the video.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
3 Ways to Overcome Your Fear from Past Trades
October 18, 2011 at 9:44 am
Traders are a skittish bunch. We can make the same trade 100 times, but the one time a left-field event occurs, it can spook us forever.
The other night, I let the dog outside before bedtime. He’s a 7-year old Boston Terrier, so I’ve done that literally a couple thousand times. This time, however, he returned to the porch with an unusual look. I knew what happened before I even opened the door, because I could smell it…he’d been sprayed by a skunk.
An hour later after thoroughly bathing him outside, our house still reeked – despite not letting him in until he’d been bathed. And let me just say, fresh skunk spray smells nothing like roadkill skunk. It’s WAY worse.
Thankfully, the stench is long gone now, but that single event conditioned me, and I’m concerned now when I let him out every night…all because of that one awful experience! Doesn’t seem right, does it?
Spooked By The Past
In trading, we have to remind ourselves regularly to remain in the present tense. Because this setup burned you last time doesn’t mean it will this time. Maybe your first couple of trades of the day were losses, and now you’re scared to touch another trade. Or perhaps you’re coming off a tough few months and you’re afraid to get back in the mix.
While respect for the market and quality risk management are of utmost importance, what I’m referring to here is the crippling fear that’s costing you. It’s the fear that’s preventing you from elevating your performance, or from digging out of what should be a manageable hole. It’s the kind of fear that has you paralyzed and unable to pull the trigger on anything.
Return to Trading Confidently
Here are 3 Ways to Overcome Your Fear of the Past:
1. Understand your odds for success. This of course includes an honest risk assessment of the play, but it also means knowing whether this type of play is likely to work given the conditions. Going over your results consistently will reveal which kinds of plays are working in the current environment and which are more likely to fail. If you understand your odds for success and you’re able to have some mathematical confidence, it would be more costly to skip the trade.
2. Understand failure. Knowing the worst-case outcome if this trade happens to fail can reduce the fear inflicted by a previous failure from an unseen event. Black swan events aren’t common, so it’s not reasonable to fear them every time you approach a setup. Weigh the potential for loss, and if it’s outweighed by the potential for gain, the probabilities are favorable enough to participate.
3. Choose to move forward. All of us have the ability to choose, whether it’s our career or our spouse or our attitude. Maybe your fear somehow gives you comfort right now, because it’s been a habit you’ve allowed. That won’t cut it though, so it’s time to change. Eventually, you either decide to get back on the right path, or you’re completely done trading. Make your choice and get on with it – and don’t look back.
Don’t let the past haunt you into skipping potentially solid plays. Assess your risk, and then take the trade confident that over time, the numbers will work to your advantage.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
