All Entries Tagged With: "Trading Psychology"
Contrarian View
October 5, 2011 at 8:03 am
Just for fun, let’s look at both sides of this market, pretending there are actual bulls out there. (All kidding aside, there are, even if they’ve been M.I.A. of late).
This market has been plenty heavy of late. The big moves I’ve caught recently have all been on the short side, and bearish consolidations abound in the charts. Simultaneously, bullish setups are few and far between, to say the very least.
But let’s look at the bullish case right now. If I’m leaving anything out, please share it in the comments, but here are a few things to consider regarding those who are counting on a lasting turnaround:
– Nowhere else to put cash right now. This is true, and a biggie. With the bond bubble keeping money managers quite leery, and precious metals already correcting sharply from their recent highs (have you seen gold?), the so-called “safe havens” haven’t been immune to the selling either. Equities are still seen as the place to be going forward.
– Multiples are contracting, value players getting more interested. The biggest difference between a technician and the fundamentalist is how momentum is viewed. Fundies look at low prices as entry opportunities, whereas technicians look at them as downtrends which may continue. These days, the value players are seeing better numbers, which may get more of them involved.
– EVERYONE seems to be sitting on considerable cash piles right now. If this market catches a bid, that cash is tremendous potential fuel for a lasting rally. As prevalent as fear has been on the way down, it will also be relevant on the way back up — who wants to miss the big rally? Nobody who runs money, I can assure you. Underperformance is worse than losing money (sadly) in the world of portfolio managers, so you can fully expect cash to come off the sidelines quickly when signs of stability finally emerge.
The bear is still alive and well, with fresh 52-week lows being made Tuesday in every index. Nonetheless, it’s always wise to look at the other side of the trade. It’s responsible, and it either lets you keep defending your stance or it presents reasons to shift (which the best traders are always willing to do).
Keep an open mind, nothing is ever out of the question in this market.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
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Intelligence is Only Part of Trading Success
August 24, 2011 at 10:46 am
In a recent conversation with a trader who had just accepted some small but frequent losses, it came to light that his emotions were flaring. Taking a small loss here or there doesn’t affect him, but taking a few in a row does.
What’s interesting though, is that it wasn’t the money that bothered him so much. It was the fact that he came to doubt his intelligence after a string of losses.
Every one of us has been there, and it’s no fun. Losing is a part of trading, and each of us knows that, but how we cope with those losses will determine how quickly we rebound from those hits that inevitably come.
Here are 3 steps I suggested he take…
1. Trade smaller. If you’re getting frustrated and angry, it’s a sign you’re placing too much importance on each trade. The way to diminish that is by reducing your size for a little while so that trades take on much less importance and you’re simply focusing on managing them properly.
2. View losses differently. Losses aren’t fun, but when viewed in a different light, they can be seen as helpful. They will make you better, because you scrutinize your mistakes and either learn something new or get reminded of a lesson you’ve previously learned. Losses also free up your capital and attention to shift toward another trade which may quickly overcome that loss.
3. Expect losses to happen. This isn’t negative thinking, but rational thinking. Begin each day knowing you might take several trades, and some might be losses. That makes it easier to accept them when they happen and it allows you to keep moving without letting emotions take over. Expect winning trades as well. And be sure you’re stopping out for smaller losses than the winning trades are providing. That will keep you net profitable and that’s the aim.
Remember, being right every time is not the aim of trading, so get out of that mindset as soon as you find yourself in it. Intelligence is only a small part of trading. Trading is a numbers game, and it’s one that requires you to deal with emotions rather than allow them to flare. Those who have an edge and who can manage emotions (tied to both losses and gains) are the ones who will succeed in trading.
What else would you tell this trader?
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
What if it Gets Worse?
August 12, 2011 at 9:02 am
It might.
What’s your plan if it does?
Over at the premium site, we went to cash on July 25th. Check your charts and you’ll see that was a minor decline day (the first of 7 straight losses in the S&P 50) ahead of all this mess we’ve seen since then. Coincidence? No. Did I see this meltdown coming? Not exactly.
What happened was that several positions had warranted tighter stops, and when the market began to turn lower (it literally began the 17% down move on that day), we were naturally taken out of those trades.
We’ve been in cash ever since, avoiding the crash. Can’t even describe the freedom that brings, psychologically right now and from a capital availability standpoint going forward.
Being the last to know is an uncomfortable place to be, no doubt about it, but clearly there were a TON of people who were late to the selling party. They didn’t recognize the potential for a lower high back on July 25th like we did. They didn’t realize the importance of key index levels getting undercut ignored time after time in the weeks since then.
Those folks are in big pain, and honestly, many of them will never learn how to avoid this from happening again. Will you?
Decisions, Decisions
You see, regardless of what happens next, regardless of whether you get bailed out of poor trades or have to eat the losses, you have a choice in how you’ll respond.
Maybe you’ll turn bitter like those who got kicked during the bear market of 2000-2002 or the one from 2007-2009. Many of them will never return to stocks. Maybe you’ll be spooked away for a little while, and you’ll regain confidence after you see another big run higher. (Not that that’s ideal).
Or…maybe you’ll do the right thing and take what you can learn from this experience. I’ve had to do that before, and I’m still in the game – still able to participate and profit. I’m glad I stuck it out.
If you’re passionate about trading and you want to improve, you can’t just hope it happens on its own. You have to work for it, you have to dig in and get your hands dirty. Study your moves, your mistakes, and your successes. Study those who have done well over time or who didn’t get crushed in the decline.
Commit to greatness, as only then can you come up with an adjustable game plan going forward. You’ll need it – especially if it gets worse.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Don’t Let Trading Be Everything
August 2, 2011 at 2:15 am
I love trading – it’s such a challenge with multiple rewards. I look forward to it, I think about it alot, and I’m passionate about it so I work quite hard to continually improve at it.
But it’s good to constantly remind myself that trading isn’t everything.
It can’t be. There’s too much more to life than just watching numbers and letters on the screen. Trading is a means to an end, and for each of us that may be something different. What we have in common though is that we have to keep trading in perspective.
One of the ways to ensure you’re doing that is to have off-the-screen goals. Maybe you’ve got another hobby or you’re a runner or a cyclist or a golfer or you have a side business. Whatever “it” is, the good thing is that you have it. Don’t view it as a distraction – think of it as a necessary diversion.
Thinking about your trading constantly shows that it’s important to you, but it borders on obsessive and that’s not good. Inevitably, there will be tough days filled with frustration, and that’s not something worth fixating on. Being able to walk away from your desk and shift your mind to something else (once you’ve reviewed your trading session) is critical to your ability to return tomorrow mentally prepared.
Check out this post for more of my thoughts on The Importance of Off-the-Screen Goals.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Take Time to Rest & Relax
August 1, 2011 at 7:15 am
This week I’m on vacation – and how sweet it is! But I’m still going to deliver some goods for you to read here…every day, actually, so keep coming back.
Today I wanted to discuss the importance of stepping away from the screens from time to time to rest up and recharge. The market will always be there when we return, but if we trade with fatigue of any sort (physical, mental, or emotional), we’ll be far from our best. That brings suffering to both our confidence and emotions – both of which we need in this game.
As you well know, trading is very demanding, so for us to show up each day with our full focus, we have to stay rested and avoid burnout.
I felt this post from the past was particularly pertinent to the current market environment. We’ve seen lots of day-to-day indecision, some sizeable gaps, and some wide-ranging bars in both directions lately. That’s not allowing many stocks to establish quality bases, which means the opportunity that’s out there is rather narrow at the moment. That will at some point change, but for the time being this is a good time to step away and let some of the dust settle.
Check out this post:Â The View From the Hammock for more of my thoughts on R&R.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Be Imperfect!
June 24, 2011 at 9:43 am
Society trains us to want to be perfect. And in many endeavors, that’s something worth striving for. Surgeons, for example, can put you at ease when they tell you they’ve performed this operation hundreds of times without any problems. Students with perfect grades get academic scholarships, saving boatloads of tuition money. And the list of examples of the benefits of perfection goes on and on.
From our appearance to our performance, someone else will always be a little better, and it causes us to try to perfect whatever it is we’re doing for the sake of improvement (or keeping up). Unfortunately, it carries over into our trading – much to our detriment.
You see, when it comes to trading, there’s no room on the perfection list. And that’s a good thing, because perfection isn’t required for success.
The very worst traders try to be perfect. They either stay sidelined in search of a perfect strategy (backtesting galore), or they practice trade until they make $1M in hopes of duplicating it live, or they simply refuse to lose.
Perfection in trading is paralyzing, both to you and your account. Growth is prevented, confidence suffers, and you feed the very traits you should strive to shun.
I’ve said before that in trading, you succeed by not failing. But that doesn’t mean you can’t have failed trades – quite the contrary. Expect losses! As negative as that might sound, it will mentally prepare you to accept them gracefully and move on to the next trade which might be a far bigger winner).
The best traders are imperfect – by choice. They grow from mistakes, not successes. Lose small and face the music when your current approach isn’t working. That shows true confidence. By definition, imperfection brings opportunities for growth – both in your account (lose small and win bigger) and in your abilities as a trader (learn new methods). But you’ll miss out if you’re not willing to bend.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Caught In A Trap
June 16, 2011 at 5:44 am
Anytime the market tanks like it has lately, astute traders realize that shorting after a decline of this magnitude and momentum is a real potential bear trap. A sharp rebound could come at any time, leaving late shorts in a world of hurt.
I can’t and won’t argue with that – in the short term.
But the further this market declines in the intermediate term, the growing group of trapped traders are the bulls. Keep in mind that the past few weeks have been a big shift of character for this market, with the prevailing mantra moving from buy-all-dips to sell-all-rallies. Technically, that’s very important to recognize.
And while a sizeable bounce will eventually arrive, the important issue for most bulls is “from what level?”
Head Games
That brings into play the psychological aspect of this change of character, whereby not only do bulls become fearful, but the bears gain confidence. Bulls who bought virtually anytime over the past few months are now underwater, and the deeper this correction goes, the more that late-to-the-rally-party group wants out.
That could quite easily play out with bulls selling on the way back up – just the opposite of a few weeks ago when trapped bears covered on every little dip. By the same token, just as a few weeks ago we were still seeing underinvested or aggressive bulls put more cash to work on even minor pullbacks, the deeper this correction goes, the more the bears will be using bounces to remount short positions. That means what used to be buying by both camps is quickly morphing into selling by both camps.
A spring back up will at some point arrive, so fear not – this market is still a 2-way street. But for now, respect for the tape should remain very high, because anything is still possible. Whenever the inevitable recoil of this selloff kicks in, keep in mind that it too could get faded, and therefore will have to earn your trust.
Here’s a look at the S&P right now with the March lows coming quickly into view at 1249 (which may need to get broken before a real bounce happens):
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
